We’re about a month away from the start of the 2023 NFL regular season, so it’s time to look at one of the more interesting sports betting props – going over and under win totals. Last year’s Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, won 14 games, but their projected win total has dropped by 2 ½ games from that. There are probably several reasons for that – the team is basically starting over with their wide receiver group, and there is often a lack of hunger from winning Super Bowl teams that leads to a slow start. Let’s look at each of the four AFC West teams’ win totals and talk about whether you should go under or over, so you can consider in your NFL betting odds.
NFL Betting News: AFC West Win Total Projections for 2023/24 Season
Kansas City Chiefs
NFL Specials Odds: 11.5
Last Year 2022: 14
Even with the new faces at wide receiver, having Travis Kelce return at tight end means that Patrick Mahomes has perhaps his most trusted target on the field with him. Right now, Mahomes is the best player in the league when it comes to creating with the ball in his hand. The offensive line remains solid after some additions in the 2022 offseason, which will give Mahomes time to create and will allow the running game to provide the offense with some balance. On defense, Steve Spagnuolo has earned a reputation as an elite maker of adjustments. Over the course of the season, the Chiefs try different ideas to find out what works. This leads to some ugly games during the first third of the season, but by midseason, the Chiefs show they can lock down opponents and deliver wins. The Chiefs face the NFC North, the AFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Jacksonville Jaguars this season. The NFC North is probably the third-toughest NFC division, but the AFC East and the results-based opponents present real challenges. So if the win total were 12.5 or 13.5, I might be tempted to go under, based on the early-season adjustments the Chiefs will have to make, but at 11.5, I still think the Chiefs will exceed that. Take the over.
Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs 11.5
L.A. Chargers
NFL Specials Odds: 9.5
Last Year 2022: 10
The Chargers made a change in the offseason at offensive coordinator, replacing Joe Lombardi with Kellen Moore, who came over from the Dallas Cowboys. His scheme tends to focus on the middle of the field at intermediate depth. An issue for Moore’s offense in Dallas was a lack of attention to coordination between the receivers running routes and the pacing of the quarterback’s dropback. This led to miscommunication that may have contributed to Dak Prescott leading the NFL in interceptions. The Chargers need to stop the run more effectively after finishing 29th in the league in rushing defense last season. Last year, the Chargers were seven combined points short of the Chiefs in their two divisional matchups, but they also got routed at home by Jacksonville. With a schedule that includes the NFC North, the AFC East, Tennessee, Dallas and Baltimore, the Chargers should be able to push the Chiefs. Take the over.
Bet on the L.A. Chargers 9.5
Denver Broncos
NFL Specials Odds: 8.5
Last Year 2022: 5
The Denver Broncos were a dumpster fire in 2022 – but the defense was not the problem. Ejiro Evero was the DC but has departed for Carolina – but the talent is still in place. Sean Payton has come to town as head coach, and it will be interesting to see how he meshes with Russell Wilson, who is a much different quarterback than Drew Brees, with whom Payton coached in New Orleans starting in 2006. The Broncos see the NFC North, the AFC East, Washington, Cleveland, and Houston, if Wilson can move the ball, the team should rebound significantly, making a jump from five to nine wins more than realistic – and Sean Payton has a reputation as an offensive innovator. Take the over.
Bet on the Denver Broncos 8.5
Las Vegas Raiders
NFL Specials Odds: 6.5
Last Year 2022: 6
The Raiders are an enigma – they have high-paid talent at the top of the depth chart, but if injuries hit, the dropoff in skill is significant. The team has brought in Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, but they structured his contract so that if his foot injury hasn’t healed, they can cut him with less impact on the salary cap. The other option is Jarrett Stidham, who showed promise down the stretch after the team basically sent Derek Carr away, but he hasn’t led a team for a full season since he was at Auburn. The Raiders actually should have only won five games last year, but a late gaffe by the New England Patriots led to an interception of a lateral that led to a Raiders touchdown as time expired. The Raiders play the NFC North, the AFC East, the Giants, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis. There are dangerous rosters up and down that schedule. Take the under.
Bet on the Las Vegas Raiders 6.5
NFL Odds to Win Super Bowl this Season
| Updated at August 8th, 2023 | |
|---|---|
| Teams | Odds |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +580 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +710 |
| Buffalo Bills | +870 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +930 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1000 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1375 |
| New York Jets | +1500 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1800 |
| Detroit Lions | +2100 |
| Miami Dolphins | +2300 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2400 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +2700 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +3200 |
| New Orleans Saints | +3300 |
| Cleveland Browns | +3300 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +3700 |
| Denver Broncos | +4300 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +4800 |
| Chicago Bears | +5200 |
| New York Giants | +5200 |
| Green Bay Packers | +5200 |
| New England Patriots | +5800 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +6000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +6600 |
| Washington Commanders | +6800 |
| Carolina Panthers | +6800 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +7000 |
| Tennessee Titans | +7000 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +9000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +11000 |
| Houston Texans | +18000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +19000 |
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