Atlanta at Miami NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds & Expert Preview

Atlanta at Miami NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds & Expert Preview

Written by on August 9, 2017

The Miami Dolphins made headlines this past week when Ryan Tannehill went down with a leg injury that could keep him out for a significant amount of time — and then they went out and signed Chicago’s dumpster fire from last year, Jay Cutler, for a cool $10 million. The Atlanta Falcons come in with their first action since that historic collapse in the Super Bowl, having made some key changes on the defensive end — but who knows what the emotional toll will be for the team? These two meet in Week 1 of the NFL Preseason. Who will be the favorites in the NFL odds to win in Miami?

Atlanta at Miami NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds & Expert Preview

When: Thursday, August 10, 2017, 7:00 PM ET Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami TV: Local Affiliates Only Radio: 92.9 FM The Game (Atlanta) / WQAM 560 AM (Miami) Live Stream: NFL Live NFL Preseason Odds: Pick ‘em, O/U 36.5

Why should you bet on the Falcons?

Few teams can score at the pace of the Atlanta Falcons — at least when Kyle Shanahan was running the offense. Now Shanahan is at the helm of the San Francisco 49ers, and Steve Sarkisian comes to town to take over the Falcons’ offense. That’s a question mark all on its own, as Sarkisian’s alcohol problems led to his bizarre departure from USC, and then he just stayed at Alabama for a single season. It will be interesting to see what the new system will be like — but the Falcons have the personnel to score using a wide variety of systems.

What About Atlanta’s Defense?

The big question for the Falcons comes on defense. They ranked #28 against the pass and #25 in overall defense a year ago. Cornerback Jalen Collins, who started for the Falcons down the stretch, enters the year on a 10-game suspension thanks to a PED finding. Atlanta brings in Dontari Poe in the middle of their D-line, and Takk McKinley, drafted out of UCLA, should be an edge-rushing complement to Vic Beasley on the other side. But how much will they play against Miami, and how much impact will they have?

Why should you put your money on the Dolphins?

The Dolphins raised a lot of eyebrows when they inked Cutler to that deal, especially with Colin Kaepernick still available, but the truth is that when Dolphins coach Adam Gase was Cutler’s offensive coordinator, Cutler played some of his best football. The hope is that Cutler, along with Matt Moore as his backup, can hold the fort on offense until Ryan Tannehill returns to take the offense back over. Because Cutler is new (even though he knows Gase’s system), I expect the Dolphins to give Cutler more time than they would typically give a starter in the first preseason game. This should mean that the Dolphins can score more, at least in the first half, than what one might expect in an opener. Are the Dolphins a safe betting pick in this NFL Preseason matchup?

How Well Was Miami’s Defense Last Year?

On the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins were significantly flawed much of last year as well, coming in #29 overall as a unit. Rakwon McMillan and Charles Harris come in as rookies to bolster the linebacking corps. While the offensive line has lost left guard Ted Larsen for the short term with a biceps injury, new tight end Julius Thomas comes to town as a new contributor who also played well under Gase when the two were in Denver. That mix of players should get some significant time, while the Falcons look at players further down the depth chart.

Atlanta vs Miami Game History

  • Total Meetings: 12
  • First Meeting: November 3oth, 1970. Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium. Atlanta, Georgia.
  • Last Meeting: September 22nd, 2013. Sun Life Stadium. Miami Gardens, Florida.
  • All-Time Series: Miami 8-4-0
  • Largest Margin of Victory: Miami 42-7 (1974)
  • Longest Win Streak: Miami 4 (1970-1983)
  • Current Win Streak: Miami 1 (2013)

NFL Preseason Betting Trends

  • Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
  • Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
  • Dolphins are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

The Dolphins have more to look at near the top of their depth chart than the Falcons do in this game, which means that they should have the talent edge for a significant part of the game. Because of that gap, I predict that the Dolphins will come out with a 20-16 victory in this preseason opener