Sports betting and the Super Bowl go hand in hand – and it’s a trend that continues to grow as more states in the U.S. legalize wagering on games and online platforms for wagering continue to grow around the world. Because so many casual bettors wager on the Super Bowl, the action can bring point spreads and moneylines a little out of balance. When you’re wagering on an event like this, there are some mistakes that can harm you later. Take a look at six helpful tips to help you maximize your winnings.
NFL Betting Analysis: Avoid These 6 Super Bowl 58 Betting Mistakes
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
Super Bowl 58: Don’t bet with your feelings
Just because your favorite team made it to the Super Bowl doesn’t mean you should throw down a heavy bet on them to win. Just because your favorite quarterback or wide receiver is in the Super Bowl doesn’t mean you should automatically take the “over” on all of their statistical player props. Do the research – for example, the 49ers have been getting gashed by the run in the last two games. This would be a great time to look up the yardage prop on Chiefs tailback Isiah Pacheco, even though he’s a star flying way under the radar right now.
Super Bowl 58: Make wise decisions with your money
Decide how much you can wager on the Super Bowl and stick to that amount. One of the worst mistakes you can make is starting to chase your losses when you first few prop bets don’t go the way that you wanted. It’s true that sometimes teams come back and turn games around, but it’s important to keep your wits about you if you’re adding live betting to your strategy.
Look at several different books to find the best odds
Different sportsbooks offer different odds on props – that’s one way that the book owners like to leverage what they see as imbalances. You’ll likely see less variance on the point spread of this game than you will on the totals for various individual player props, and even if the totals are the same, the moneylines on either side of those totals could also show opportunities to get more value. Stay on top of the numbers on the bets that interest you most as the game gets closer, as heavy action can pull things in a direction that benefits you.
| Super Bowl 58 Picks Odds Subject to Change |
SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2 | +105 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -2 | -125 | O 47.5 |
Understand the various types of betting and do plenty of research
Prop bets, moneylines, and point spreads all involve different strategies and guidelines, so read up on how they work before you start spreading money around. You will also want to research the various trends at work. For example, which of the three levels in the San Francisco defense are the toughest? What types of passes do they defend most effectively? How does this compare with Patrick Mahomes’ tendencies? That’s just one set of questions that you will want to ask.
Don’t run right to the high-risk wagers
Accumulators and parlays are exciting bets because of the big payouts they offer, but those payouts are big for a reason – the wagers come with plenty of risk. Don’t imagine that the eight-leg parlay you really like will hit just as easily as the one Adam Sandler’s character rode to victory in Uncut Gems. Focus on bets that offer better probability of victory, limiting your high-risk bets.
Don’t immediately agree with the spread
Why are the San Francisco 49ers favored to beat Kansas City on Sunday? The Chiefs have beaten better teams in the playoffs (Miami, Buffalo, Baltimore) than the 49ers have (Green Bay, Detroit). The Ravens beat the 49ers by double digits on the road, but the Chiefs went to Baltimore and held the Ravens to 10 points. The Chiefs’ offense has sputtered now and then this season, but it’s hard to argue that, at this point in the postseason, the 49ers are a more intimidating team.
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Super Bowl 58
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