Safety Kyle Hamilton was a huge part of the Baltimore Ravens’ 2023 AFC North crown. He was named All-Pro in just his second season and has elevated himself to one of the top defensive contributors in the year. The Ravens drafted him 14th overall in 2022, and he played in 16 games, starting four, as a rookie. In 2023, he started 15 games and posted 81 tackles, 13 passes defended, 10 tackles for loss, four interceptions, and three sacks. His ability to provide pass coverage and also come into the first two levels and disrupt the running game makes him a real force to reckon with. With the Cincinnati Bengals reloading their O-line and getting quarterback Joe Burrow back, the Pittsburgh Steelers adding Russell Wilson at quarterback, and the Cleveland Browns running an elite defense out there and hoping for improvement from Deshaun Watson, the AFC North will be an intriguing division. Let’s take an in-depth look at the Ravens’ prospects for 2024 starting with their NFL betting odds to win their division, conference and the Super Bowl, and their over/under win total.
NFL Futures Odds and Season Preview: Baltimore Ravens 2024
- Regular Season Win Total Odds: O/U 10.5
- Odds to Win the AFC North Division: +140
- Odds to Win the AFC Championship: +550
- Baltimore Ravens Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX: +1100
Devin Duvernay
The Baltimore Ravens also reloaded at returner; Devin Duvernay was an All-Pro at that position in 2021, but he left via free agency. The front office went out and got Deonte Harty, named All-Pro as a returner in 2019. Harty played with Buffalo in 2023 and had the NFL’s longest punt return of the season, taking a kick 96 yards to the house in the season finale against Miami. Obviously, Duvernay’s shoes are huge to fill, but Harty looks ready for the job. He can also help out at wide receiver; in 2021 with New Orleans, he caught 36 balls for 570 yards and three scores.
Derrick Henry
Is Derrick Henry over the hill as far as his career at tailback? His bruising running style has to take a toll on him at some point, and while he broke the 1,000-yard mark with Tennessee last year, the team’s willingness to let him leave in favor of Tony Pollard, who had an underwhelming season with Dallas, is telling. However, according to Pro Football Focus, Henry is the second-ranked tailback in the NFL going into the 2024 campaign. Only Christian McCaffrey of San Francisco is ranked ahead of him.
The rankings are based on Henry’s production in 2023: 1,167 rushing yards and a dozen touchdowns, averaging 4.2 yards per carry. For PFF, that led to a grade of 90.1, the third highest in the league. Other factors that played a role included Henry’s age and a subpar passing game in Tennessee. Henry comes into 2024 as a 30-year-old tailback, an age that is past the prime for most tailbacks these days. According to offensive coordinator Todd Monken, if Henry can get to 300 carries, that will mean the Ravens are having a terrific season. In the last two seasons, Henry has also increased his receiving numbers, with a combined 61 catches for 612 yards across the 2022 and 2023 seasons. He also demonstrated his pass-catching skills in OTAs last week, and he is just as hard to bring down catching passes as he is running out of the backfield.
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Mark Andrews
Tight end Mark Andrews had a disappointing 2023 thanks to a fractured fibula, which limited him to just 10 games. That opened the door for Sam LaPorta and the other Baltimore tight ends, but Andrews has recovered fully and is just 28 years old. With Travis Kelce slowing down a bit during the 2023 regular season, Andrews looks set to take Kelce’s mantle as the top tight end in the NFL. In 2022, Andrews was a first-team All-Pro with 107 receptions for nine scores and 1,361 yards.
The wide receiver group has been a sore topic in Baltimore for the last few years. It’s a part of the roster that the front office seems to overlook from one season to the next, and going into 2024, a group led by Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor is underwhelming. It’s true that there are some solid metrics there. Zay Flowers was 17th of the 59 receivers with at least 75 targets in catchable pass percentage (85.6%) and ninth of 59 in reception percentage (71.3%) according to The Athletic. Agholor was third of 35 receivers who had 40-74 targets in catchable pass percentage (92.1%) and reception percentage (77.9%). However, these numbers may have had more to do with the accuracy of Lamar Jackson than with these receivers’ ability to gain separation and make big plays.
Speaking of Lamar Jackson, the 2023 NFL MVP has apparently dropped weight, down from 230 pounds in 2022 to 205 coming into 2024. In six NFL seasons, he has run for 5,528 yards and 29 scores, but now he threatens to be even more elusive than he has in the past. Henry should be able to take the brunt of the load in predictable running situations. Of the 50 running backs with more than 350 rushing attempts in the last four years, none have a higher rate against 7+ man boxes than Derrick Henry (88.4%), according to Sharp Football Analysis. Over half of his rushes (53%) came against 8+ man boxes. Even so, he was #11 in both EPA/attempt and yards per carry out of those 50 tailbacks. On third down over the last four seasons, 94% of his runs have come against loaded boxes. Even so, he was tops in first down rate (81%). While the Ravens had a decent committee at tailback, they didn’t have an enforcer at tailback like Henry, and Henry will have plenty of motivation after the Titans let him go.
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Baltimore Ravens Schedule
Let’s take a quick look at the Ravens’ schedule. They play in Kansas City on Thursday, September 5, in the first regular-season game for the whole league. This rematch of last year’s AFC Championship will be interesting as the Chiefs are working in new wide receivers and likely will not have Rashee Rice with the offense. The Chiefs lost in this time slot last year to a hungry Detroit Lions team, and I see the Ravens coming in with momentum and hunger to make a positive statement of their own.
After that, the Ravens open their home slate with the Las Vegas Raiders, hosting a Pacific time zone team in the early afternoon slot, always good for the hosts. Then they travel to Dallas, host Buffalo and visit Cincinnati. That’s a tough gauntlet to start the season, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Ravens emerge 3-2 or even 4-1.Things ease a bit after that, with a visit from Washington and then trips to Tampa Bay and Cleveland. At this point, the Ravens have an excellent shot of being 5-3 or even 6-2. The next five games: at home vs Denver and Cincinnati and then trips to play the Steelers and the Chargers before a home date with Philadelphia, could see the Ravens at 9-4 or 10-3. Then the bye comes at last in Week 14, followed by dates at the Giants, at home against Pittsburgh, at Houston and at home against Cleveland. An 11-6 or 12-5 finish takes them over the win total and (especially in the case of 12-5) likely grabs an AFC North division title.
What stands in the way of this solid season? Well, Derrick Henry’s time could run out as a tailback capable of using his power to transform offenses. Lamar Jackson’s history of injuries could return. The wide receiver corps could live down to its (lack of) explosiveness and put too much pressure on the running game. The Bengals, Browns and Steelers could turn into wrecking crews. Some or all of these outcomes are possible, but for now, things are sunny in Baltimore.
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This is Mark Andrews' mentality going into the season: pic.twitter.com/XQLzB4hpXe
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) May 28, 2024
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