One of the tightest Super Bowls in recent memory is set for next Sunday, as the Kansas City Chiefs are favored by a single point over the San Francisco 49ers. The point total (54 ½) is somewhat high for a pro football game, a recognition of the explosive Kansas City offense. The 49ers don’t get involved in a lot of barnburners, but they did go down to New Orleans and deliver a 48-46 win in the regular season, so they can win track meets as well as games played at a slow, grinding pace. One of the more fun ways for sports betting enthusiasts to engage with the Super Bowl is to take on one of the many “prop” bets that pop up, covering everything from score by quarters to the length of the performance of the national anthem. We have a list of some of the more compelling Super Bowl LIV prop bets.
The Best Super Bowl LIV Prop Bets
Score by Quarter
Kansas City is favored to win each quarter by a half-point. Interestingly, the point totals vary somewhat significantly by quarter. For the first quarter, the over/under is ten points, but it jumps to 16 ½ for the second. The third quarter drops to 10 ½ points; the fourth goes back up to 14 ½. The first quarter is often a time for opponents to sniff each other out and, for the Chiefs, it’s been a time of kicking back and relaxing while the opponent builds a lead, at least in their first two playoff games. The second and fourth quarters both involve frenzied activity as the clock ticks down, so points tend to jump.
Will either team score three straight times? (Yes -190 / No +160)
This is a prop that recognizes the Chiefs’ ability to pour on the points. They had five straight touchdown drives against the Houston Texans. The fact that the favorite here is the “Yes” shows the lack of faith that the books have in either defense to produce stops. The prop includes safeties, touchdowns and field goals while excluding PATs and two-point conversions.
Opening Coin Toss
Heads or tails? The moneyline is -102 for either one, showing you that the house always gets its margin. If you are one who enjoys exploring pure chance, then you will enjoy taking a flier on this one. Historically, 28 of the 53 Super Bowl coin tosses have gone “tails,” with the other 25 landing on “heads.” “Heads” did win five straight years from 2009-2013, but it’s basically a coin toss (pun intended).
Total QB Sacks by Both Teams (Over/Under 4 ½)
The over here is -130 while the under is +110. Both teams have solid pass rushes, but the 49ers can mount a ton of pressure just with their four-man line. Patrick Mahomes is a slippery quarterback to bring down, but he has a tendency to hold onto the ball longer than quarterbacks with a few years’ more experience in the league. And the Chiefs can get to Jimmy Garoppolo, but he didn’t even attempt passes in double digits in the NFC Championship, so the “under” is a tempting value here.
Will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter? (Yes +240 / No -300)
It’s interesting that, in a game with a one-point line, the odds against a lead change in the fourth quarter would be so heavy. Not all Super Bowls turn out to be especially competitive, of course. However, it’s been a long time since a Super Bowl had a lead change in the fourth quarter. You have to go all the way back to Super Bowl XLVI, when the New York Giants got a six-yard touchdown run from Ahmad Bradshaw with 1:04 remaining in the fourth to take a four-point lead, which they would hold to win, 21-17. I’m considering going with the “Yes” here because of the value, and because of how close I think this game will be — but getting that comeback to work out is trickier than you think.
