In the world of sports betting, the Super Bowl is a huge event in terms of volume. Last year, 20% of the U.S. population – 50.4 million adults – were projected to bet about $16 billion on Super Bowl LVII. That number represented a 61% increase from Super Bowl LVI. One factor is that four states started to allow online sports betting in the year between those Super Bowls. That $16 billion projection was more than twice the estimates from the year before, and it includes bets undertaken with legal sportsbooks as well as illegal books and among friends on a casual basis. In that game, the Philadelphia Eagles were favored to win by 1 ½ points, and almost three-quarters of the money wagered was placed on the Eagles to win and cover. So when the Chiefs won, that meant a lot of payouts for the books. Does the timing of a Super Bowl 58 bet matter, though? Read on to get our thoughts.
NFL Betting Analysis: Should You Bet Early or Late on the Super Bowl?
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
With two weeks elapsing between the opening of the Super Bowl point spreads and other props and the game itself, bettors have an unusual window of time to make up their minds. Because of the sheer volume of wagers placed on this game, the odds are tighter on this game than on just about any other.
If you’re betting on the spread, the only imbalance you’ll find will come at the very beginning. Super Bowl LVIII opened at San Francisco -2 or -2 ½, depending on the book, and that narrowed to -1 or -1 ½ quickly as early money came in on the Kansas City Chiefs.
| Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl Picks Odds Subject to Change |
SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | +1.5 | +100 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco | -1.5 | -120 | O 47.5 |
Does the early action pay off? If you go back and look at the last 15 Super Bowls, the team that got early action on the point spread has gone 11-3-1 against the spread in the game. However, the early shifts in the point spread and the moneyline often come in the first hours, if not moments, after the opening lines are released, so if you’re going to take advantage of an early imbalance, you likely need to have your gambling account open so you can hit the wagers as soon as the opening lines become public.
What about the over/under? In this case, the early action can also help shape the market. However, recreational bettors tend to favor the “over,” which could push the total higher than it should be. Frequently, the over/under will drop soon after opening, before rising as game day approaches and recreational players hit the over. Once the total gets high enough, the savvy bettors will take advantage of the imbalance and take the “under.” The 49ers scored 65 points in their two playoff games combined; over that same stretch, the Chiefs have scored 44. It’s odd to think of the Chiefs as a defensive powerhouse, but that’s what they’ve become the last two seasons.
Then there’s the moneyline. For this wager, the underdog often gets bet more heavily because it offers more value. As things get closer to kickoff, money tends to pour in on the underdog’s side, making the price for the favorite less steep. You can take advantage of that discount if you like the moneyline favorite, but if you like the underdog, it’s better to snag it in the first couple of days the wager is open.
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