Super Bowl LVIII is set for Sunday, February 11, as the Kansas City Chiefs will square off against the San Francisco 49ers. This game is a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, which the Chiefs won, 31-20. Since then, the 49ers have revamped their offense, moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy at quarterback and adding wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tailback Christian McCaffrey. The Chiefs have reloaded on offense to some degree, although Rashee Rice has yet to take on the full load that Tyreek Hill carried as a deep speed threat in the receiving game. Tailback Isiah Pacheco gives the Chiefs a bruising ground game – and the Chiefs’ defense is much better this time around, strong on all three levels. The 49ers are currently listed as two-point favorites with an over/under set at 47 ½ or 48 points, depending on the book. Should you favor the “over” in your NFL betting? Here are three reasons we say yes.
NFL Betting Analysis: 3 Reasons to Bet the Over in Super Bowl 58
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
The 49ers can pound the ball on the ground
Kansas City held the Baltimore Ravens to just 10 points in the AFC Championship, but the secondary got an interception, and Zay Flowers fumbled the ball on the verge of the goal line, leading to a touchback for the Chiefs. Without those turnovers, the game could have been significantly different. On the ground, the Chiefs permitted 4.5 yards per carry on the season, a number that the Ravens did not leverage in their favor.
The 49ers have Christian McCaffrey at tailback, and it was his combination of physicality and speed that broke the Green Bay Packers in the second half of the divisional playoff. Detroit largely contained the 49ers’ ground game, but Brock Purdy was able to get out and pick up key first downs via the scramble.
| Super Bowl 58 Picks Odds Subject to Change |
SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | +2 | +105 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco | -2 | -125 | O 47.5 |
The 49ers have a dangerous deep passing game
Purdy has an accurate arm in the deep passing game on the play-action, and Aiyuk gives the 49ers another legitimate downfield threat. It is true that Aiyuk’s 50-yard catch late in the game caromed off a Detroit player’s face mask, but that came after some defensive pass interference, so the 49ers would have had a huge gain anyway. Even with L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie at corner for Kansas City, the 49ers should get some deep openings to Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk even found himself open down the field for a big play in the NFC Championship. Using the play-action game with McCaffrey should set up more clean pockets for Purdy, but the 49drs will have to deal with George Karlaftis and Chris Jones in the pass rush.
The Chiefs start games strong on offense
Two drives, two touchdowns. That’s how the Chiefs started the AFC Championship, and that lead would hold up the rest of the way as the Chiefs would only add a field goal after that. Travis Kelce benefited from having Week 18 off and has looked fresh in these playoffs. Having another week off between the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl will help even more. He had 11 catches for 116 yards in the teeth of a Baltimore defense strong at the linebacker and secondary levels, and I expect his production to stay high. Having those scripted drives at the start of games helps the Chiefs take an early advantage, and the drop problems that had plagued the team all season long seem to have evaporated. It’s perhaps no coincidence that Kadarius Toney has basically vanished from the offense. Either way, this is a team that can score, and the San Francisco defense hasn’t proven to be as tough as people thought in the playoffs.
Live Super Bowl Betting Odds For Today
Bet NFL Football Lines in Xbet Sportsbook
Super Bowl 58
Love betting NFL football? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date NFL lines for Regular Season
Xbet Previous Betting News | Archive
Super Bowl LIV
Why You Should Bet the Over for Super Bowl LIV?
Within minutes of the end of the NFC Championship, as the San Francisco 49ers were celebrating their rout of the Green Bay Packers, the bookmakers were also at work, as they quickly released the initial point spread of Super Bowl LIV. The Kansas City Chiefs were favored by a point, and the initial over/under total was 51.5 points. Some shifting has taken place since that time, as the spread has slid up to 1.5 points, while the point total has moved as high as 54.5 points on some books. Why? Because the sports betting public has come down heavily on the side of the “over,” with over 90 percent of the action going to that side. Given the way this game is likely to go, the “over” makes some sense. Why? Check out our Super Bowl LIV betting analysis of the point total wager.
Why You Should Bet the Over for Super Bowl LIV?
If you take the average point totals that these two teams scored in the regular season, you get about 58 points, as San Francisco scored almost 30 points per game, and Kansas City averaged about 28 points. The Chiefs’ average includes two games started by backup quarterback Matt Moore, so it should probably be a few points higher. That combined point total would put the game over the top.
Also, the Kansas City offense has scored at will against some fairly tough defenses. The Houston Texans had a stout unit — until the Chiefs broke through for five consecutive touchdown drives after going down 24-0. The Tennessee Titans locked down the offenses of the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens in their first two playoff wins, but then they could not control the Kansas City offense in the same way, and they ended up losing fairly handily.
Has It Paid Off in the Past?
The “over” has paid off in two of the last four Super Bowls. Super Bowl LI went over as the New England Patriots came all the way back from a 28-3 deficit to win, 34-28, in overtime (and posting 62 total points), and then the Patriots and Eagles went over again the next, combining for 64 total points — before that total shrank to just 16 in Super Bowl LII.
A lot has been said about San Francisco’s defense — particularly their front four. They have four former first-round draft picks on their defensive line. They were tops in the NFL in pressures when they just rushed four, which meant they did not have to commit others from the coverage game to rush the passer. They gave Aaron Rodgers all kinds of harassment in the NFC Championship.
However, when the 49ers went down to New Orleans to play the Saints, that game turned into a track meet. Neither team played much defense as the 49ers rallied for a 48-46 win on a last-second field goal — and the teams combined for 94 points. Kansas City’s offense has a lot more in common with the Saints’ attack than with Green Bay’s, and if the Chiefs start operating at warp speed, the 49ers will be challenged to keep up with them. Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 349 yards and four touchdowns in that game, so he can play that sort of contest as well.
Is It Safe to Take the Over?
So, if you like the over, you think that, after a slow first quarter, the Chiefs will figure out how to move the ball against the 49ers — and San Francisco will find those holes in the Kansas City run defense. When the Chiefs make some adjustments, the 49ers will find some open receivers down the field. Kansas City does have a nice pass rush, so Jimmy Garoppolo will have to get the ball out quickly, but he has shown he can do it in the past.
If you like the over, you may also like Kansas City to win. I tend to see the game going that way, with the Chiefs winning on a drive in the fourth quarter, or perhaps even moving far enough ahead late in the third. Given how well San Francisco played in that barnburner against the Saints, though, I see them matching the Chiefs score for score, until the end.
