When the first odds to win Super Bowl LIV came out, the Kansas City Chiefs were favored to beat the San Francisco 49ers by a point, with an over/under total of 51.5 points. Since then, the line has crept up to 1.5 points on most books, and the point total has slid up as well, between 53.5 and 54.5 points, depending on which book you consult. That’s a fairly high point total for the pro football game, but two of the last three Super Bowls ended up in the sixties, as Philadelphia and New England combined for 64 points and the Patriost combined with Atlanta for 62, before New England and the Los Angeles Rams scored just 16 total points a year ago. So the barnburner Super Bowl can be a thing. In this article, though, we make the case for why you should pick the “under” for Super Bowl LIV, even as the point total slides higher.
Why You Should Bet the Under for Super Bowl LIV
Should You Bet on the Over?
If you look at the two offenses, the “over” seems to be a no-brainer. After all, in the first few days of the betting, over 90 percent of the action on the point total favored the “over.” That’s why the point total has slid from 51.5 all the way to 54.5 on some books. During the regular season, the 49ers scored almost 30 points per game, and the Chiefs scored 28, a number that would almost certainly have been higher if the Chiefs had not had Matt Moore starting at quarterback for two weeks and Patrick Mahomes limited in several other games as he recovered from ankle and knee injuries.
However, last year, the final over/under point total for Super Bowl LIII was 55.5. The Los Angeles Rams were scoring at warp speed, and the New England Patriots still had a bunch of weapons around quarterback Tom Brady. However, the game was tied 3-3 at the end of the third quarter, and with 16 total points, it ended up as the lowest score in a Super Bowl era, breaking a record that had stood since Super Bowl III, which the Jets won, 16-7.
What About the Under?
The “under” has paid off in two of the last four Super Bowls. In Super Bowl 50, Carolina and Denver came in with a final point total of 43.5. Denver ended up winning the game, but it was a defensive struggle that the Broncos ended up winning, 24-10. Both of those teams came in with solid defensive units, and Kansas City and San Francisco both put up good defensive numbers this year. The Chiefs and 49ers finished seventh and eighth, respectively, in fewest points permitted for the regular season. San Francisco has permitted 30 points in their two playoff games, while the Chiefs have permitted 55. Twenty-four of those came in the AFC divisional round before the Chiefs scored a single point. If you take those out (and seven came on a punt block and seven more came on a very short field after a muffed punt) then they only permitted 31.
So if you take the under in this game, you think that Kansas City will come in more focused than they started against Houston, and that their susceptibility to the running game will have been addressed during the two-week break between the conference championships and the Super Bowl. They won’t get confused by the misdirection running game that San Francisco used to make Green Bay look silly in the NFC Championship. Also, they will be able to sustain drives against the 49ers, but they will have to settle for field goals more often. If you think the under holds, then you probably also thinks that San Francisco wins, with their defense driving the rhythm of the game, and their running game keeping the Chiefs’ offense frustrated over on the sideline.
