According to a survey by the American Gaming Association (AGA), Americans are projected to put $23.1 billion on the line in sports betting on Super Bowl LVIII. These bets would come from a projected 67.8 million adults – about 26% of the American adult population. Both of these numbers (bettors and dollars) have risen significantly thanks to the spread of legal sports wagering. Sportsbooks spent over $360 million in television ads and media value in 2023, and the Super Bowl 58 broadcast will feature two sportsbook commercials. As the big game gets closer, check out our thoughts on the best ways to approach your decisions.
NFL Betting Analysis: The Best Super Bowl Chiefs vs 49ers Betting Strategy
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
Underdogs prosper in the Super Bowl
When the line opened on Super Bowl LVIII, Kansas City was a 2 ½-point underdog. Most books now have the spread at +2 for the Chiefs now. Thirteen of the last 20 underdogs in Super Bowl games have covered – but when the underdog is getting no more than three points, that cover rate drops to four of nine. When the AFC team is the underdog, they have gone 4-1 against the spread over the last 20 seasons. That includes last year, when the Chiefs entered Super Bowl LVII as 1 ½-point underdogs but won straight up.
An unusual fact about this trend is that, as the spread rises, bettors should fade the line. Underdogs that get a line of +2 or +3 have covered six of the last 11 Super Bowls. Underdogs do tend to have a hard time when they play teams that beat them in their last head-to-head matchup. In the most recent five Super Bowls with spreads of no more than three points, the favorite that prevailed in the last head-to-head meeting covered three times out of five.
| Super Bowl 58 Picks Odds Subject to Change |
SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2 | +105 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -2 | -125 | O 47.5 |
Playing under the stars
For some reason, playing in a dome as opposed to outside leads to a significant difference in outcome for underdogs. If we look at the last 19 Super Bowls, eight have taken place indoors, and the underdog has gone 4-4 against the spread in those games. In the 11 games played outdoors, the underdog has gone 9-2 against the spread. This Super Bowl? It’s at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas…which has a roof.
How about the point total? If we look at those eight Super Bowls played indoors, the “over” has gone 5-3, including a 2-1 record in games with point totals set at 50 points or higher.
Money talks
Teams that draw a huge following in the betting market tend to excel. Over the last 20 years, the teams that got more than 55% of the wagers have gone 8-6 against the spread. Teams that get at least 60% of the wagers have gone 4-2 against the spread. However, the last three clubs that got at least 55% of the bets have lost against the spread, and two of them also lost straight up.
Check out regular-season performance against the spread
Teams that are favored but didn’t cover the spread at least 65% of the time during the regular season have only covered in five of 13 chances over the last 20 Super Bowls. Underdogs who won at least 60% of the time against the spread went 7-5 against the spread in the Super Bowl. So if a team has the discipline to play close against favorites and take care of business against bottom-feeders, the chance of that trend continuing in the Super Bowl is significant.
What about recent playoff experience?
Favorites that went to the playoffs the previous season are just 7-12 against the spread in the Super Bowl. Underdogs who went to the playoffs the season before are 6-4 against the spread – including 2-2 against the spread when the line is no more than +3. If an underdog missed the previous postseason, they go 7-3 against the spread, but just 2-3 in a spread of no more than three points.
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