This weekend marks the wild card round of the NFL playoffs, with six games that will winnow the postseason field down to the last eight teams standing with a chance at the Vince Lombardi Trophy, given to the winner of each year’s Super Bowl. We have a team with a losing record (8-9) that will host a game as a division winner (Tampa Bay, facing the 12-5 Dallas Cowboys). We have a matchup between quarterbacks who threw for over 4,000 yards during the regular season and who are also making their playoff debuts (Justin Herbert for the Chargers and Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville). We have a team starting its third-string quarterback (Brock Purdy for the San Francisco 49ers). How should you make NFL Playoffs betting decisions in this chaos? We have some advice for each game.
NFL News: Wild Card Betting Advice
→ Saturday, January 14
Seattle Seahawks (+10) at San Francisco 49ers (O/U 43) (4:30 pm ET, FOX)
The 49ers are a perfect 5-0 with Brock Purdy at quarterback. The team also has a grinding defense, and they face a Seattle team that has seen the offense dwindle. Since the bye week, the Seahawks have gone 3-4. They haven’t scored at least 24 points since a 30-24 home loss to Carolina on December 11. Geno Smith has had a good season leading the Seattle offense, but there is room for improvement. San Francisco straight up, Seattle to cover, take the under.
L.A. Chargers (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 47.5) (8:15 pm ET, NBC)
In Week 3, Jacksonville went to Los Angeles and delivered a shocking 38-10 whipping of the Chargers that may have been the first sign that the Jaguars were a team on the rise. The Jags then went on a five-game losing streak…which was mirrored by a five-game winning streak to end the season that included a pair of wins over the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers finished the season with a weird 31-28 loss in Denver, and frankly, seeing them as a road favorite doesn’t make sense. Jacksonville straight up and to cover, take the over.
→ Sunday, January 15
Miami Dolphins (+11) at Buffalo Bills (O/U 44.5) (1:00 pm ET, CBS)
The Bills are still riding the momentum of the recovery of defensive back Damar Hamlin, and they were 7-1 at home this season. Josh Allen had seven touchdown passes without a pick in the Bills’ two games against Miami this season. Add that to the fact that the Dolphins aren’t sure who will be playing quarterback, and you have the makings of a massacre. Buffalo straight up and to cover, take the over.
N.Y. Giants (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings (O/U 48.5) (4:30 pm ET, FOX)
The Vikings played the Giants at home on Christmas Day and eked out a 27-24 win. The Giants locked in the sixth seed in Week 17 and rested Daniel Jones in Week 18, while the Vikings spent Week 17 getting embarrassed in Green Bay and used Week 18 to get a bit of recovery against Chicago. I don’t like to take Kirk Cousins in pressure-filled games, and the Vikings have all the pressure here. Giants straight up and to cover, take the under.
Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 44) (8:15 pm ET, NBC)
Early on, it looked like Lamar Jackson’s gamble to go into the season and earn a huge extension would pay off. Then the Ravens started coughing up double-digit leads, and then Jackson went down with a knee injury that still has him questionable for the playoff opener. The Bengals have won eight in a row, and their defense is ironclad once again. Cincinnati to win, Baltimore to cover, take the under.
→ Monday, January 16
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 45.5) (8:15 pm ET, ABC/ESPN)
When Mike McCarthy walked onto the turf at Lambeau Field dressed like Vince Lombardi, I knew that the latest iteration of unjustified entitlement had taken hold in Dallas. The Cowboys just sleepwalked through a 26-6 embarrassment in a meaningless Week 18 game in Washington, and now they head to Tampa Bay to take on a quarterback they’ve never beaten (Tom Brady) in a situation (a road playoff win) that they have not managed to win since 1992. Tampa Bay straight up and to cover, take the under.
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