One of the biggest sports betting seasons of the year is about to get underway, with the NFL’s 2021 regular season set to start on Thursday. This season should be less chaotic than 2020, with so many of the league’s players and coaches already vaccinated, and with the league operating with an actual preseason this time around, instead of launching right into Week One.
Before you wager on NFL games, though, there are some steps that you should take to increase your likelihood of success.
NFL News: Betting Checklist for NFL Games
Search for middle profits
This isn’t always available, but when it is, it can give you a reliable result — even though the winnings will not be huge. “Middle profits” happen when you look at lines that allow you to bet on both, taking the opportunity to win on both sides of a game. This also cuts your losses. Let’s take a look at an example:
At two sportsbooks, you find two lines on the same game that are different. At one book, the home team is a 3 ½-point favorite, and at another, the line has them favored by 4 ½ points instead. You put down a bet on both sides of the game. If the home team ends up winning by four points, you end up winning both sides. You bet on the road team, getting 4 ½ points, with the one book, and then you bet on the home team, giving 3 ½ points, with the other. If you hit that sweet spot, you get a pair of wins. Most of the time, though, you will just win on one side or the other.
Watch average per attempt or average per play
Some statistics are more important than others when planning your sports betting. Overall statistics can turn out to be impressive, but over the course of a season, they can become misleading, as they undergo skewing from extreme results from one game instead of looking at results over the course of a season. Such numbers as average plays per game, average yards per carry, average yards (or sacks) per pass attempt, and so on. Totals in those areas can end up reflecting shorter-term trends, but averages provide more apples-to-apples comparisons between teams.
Evaluate all of the players — not just the skill positions
Tony Romo was one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL during his run with the Dallas Cowboys. However, for the first two-thirds of his career in Dallas, he struggled behind an offensive line that had a difficult time protecting him. He spent a lot of time scrambling for his life; given his speed and agility, he was able to have some success, but once the Cowboys finally invested in an offensive line, Romo’s numbers took off — and the Cowboys actually made the playoffs. Evaluating Romo as a quarterback was not very helpful when it came to informing wagering decisions about the Cowboys; evaluating the offensive line made for a much more helpful look at Dallas’ prospects at the time.
Analyze the coaching staffs for each team
It is true that it is the players who make the decisions, but having the right coaches can make all the difference. One reason behind the long-term stability of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ status as contenders has to do with the trust that the Rooney family has placed in head coach Mike Tomlin — who has rewarded that trust with a pair of world championships. On the other side of the coin are the New York Jets, who have had instability at head coach — and whose last head coach, Adam Gase, mismanaged two teams into the ground and wasted the first few years of Sam Darnold’s career. Understanding the role that a coach plays with respect to installing a system and engineering a championship culture makes a huge difference over time — and should be a part of your wagering considerations.
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