At this point in the regular season, you don’t often see sports betting lines that get out of balance in the NFL. However, this week’s matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Dallas Cowboys might be offering an opportunity. This line opened at Dallas +1 but has already shifted 2 ½ points toward the Cowboys, even though the Vikings are playing much more impressive football at this point and the game is in Minneapolis. The Vikings just pulled off a comeback from 17 down to beat Buffalo on the road in overtime, while the Cowboys just coughed up a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to lose in Green Bay, also in overtime. Let’s break down this matchup of potential NFC playoff teams.
NFL Preview: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
(Sunday, November 20)
When: Sunday, November 20, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
TV: CBS
Radio: KRLD 105.3 FM Dallas
Live Stream: Sling TV
NFL Odds: Dallas -1.5 / O/U 47.5 // Dallas -125 / Minnesota +105
Why should you bet on the Cowboys?
There is one metric that might justify this point spread: DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average. According to this measure, Dallas is the fourth-best team in the league (12th on offense, 2nd on defense, 3rd on special teams). Minnesota ranks 17th overall (17th on offense, 19th on defense, 25th on special teams). DVOA does not analyze win-loss record, and it appears that it may be overlooking Dallas’ tendency to lay down for opposing running games.
Even so, the defense leads the NFL in sacks (35) and pressure rate (40.8). Edge rusher Micah Parsons has eight sacks and 40 pressures, and Minnesota might not have left tackle Christian Darrisaw (concussion protocol). Osa Odighizuwa, Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler Jr and Demarcus Lawrence have at least 18 pressures each. The Green Bay Packers took advantage of this by focusing on the running game, pounding the ball with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, opening the door for that comeback last week. You can beat that the Vikings will use a similar approach, and Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattinson make another strong tandem. On offense, Dallas has plenty of talent, but their propensity for pre-snap and holding penalties has a way of slowing down their drives.
Why should you put your money on the Vikings?
If the line holds to kickoff, the Vikings would only be the fourth team since 1970 to be a home underdog despite having a record of 8-1 or better. In two of those games, the underdog was playing a backup quarterback, but this week, the Vikings will have Kirk Cousins. While Dallas has a healthy Dak Prescott at quarterback, he has only posted a 6:4 TD:INT ratio since returning from injury. Ezekiel Elliott missed the loss to Green Bay with a knee injury and is questionable for this week.
Dallas’ offensive line has iffy pass protection grades from Connor McGovern, Terence Steele and Tyler Smith, which means that Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter should have opportunities to pressure Prescott, or at least pick up holding penalties. There are also the intangibles, including the Cowboys’ tendency to crumble against quality opposition while rolling up wins against lesser teams.
Final Score and Prediction
Dallas might have an edge on paper, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, but the Vikings have been winning the tough games and have a seven-game winning streak. I predict a final score of Minnesota 27, Dallas 23.
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