The NFL makes its first foray into Germany on Sunday, as the Seattle Seahawks will square off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the home field of Bayern Munich, one of the dominant teams in the German Bundesliga of soccer. The line for this game sat at Tampa Bay -9.5 before the start of the season. However, the odds have whipsawed; when they reopened this week, Tampa Bay was just a one-point favorite, but now that number has ticked up to three. Several factors have played a role, such as Seattle’s rise to the top of the NFC West (thanks to the terrific quarterback play of Geno Smith) and the implosion of the Buccaneers’ offense. Tom Brady led the Bucs to a comeback win over the Rams last week, but can he repeat those heroics on the other side of the globe? Read on to get our NFL betting preview of this international showdown.
NFL Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Sunday, November 13)
When: Sunday, November 13, 2022, 9:30 am ET
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
TV: NFL Network
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Sling TV
NFL Odds: Tampa Bay -3 / O/U 44.5 // Tampa Bay -150 / Seattle +125
Why should you bet on the Seahawks?
Seattle leads the all-time series between the two teams, 9-5 and won the most recent meeting, back in November 19. That game was a track meet, as the Seahawks won, 40-34, in overtime. Russell Wilson led the Seahawks on a 10-play, 75-yard drive to start the extra frame and threw a 10-yards touchdown pass to Jacob Hollister. Things have changed, of course, as Russell Wilson is now in Denver, but Geno Smith has put up huge passing numbers this season. His QBR (68) is fourth in the NFL, and his PFF QB grade (87.0) is also fourth-best. Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest PFF coverage grade this season (82.0), although they have had a difficult time pressuring quarterbacks – until last week, when they sacked Matthew Stafford four times.
The Seahawks come in on a four-game winning streak, including three straight up wins in which they were underdogs. On the season, they are 5-2 straight up as the underdog. If you like the Seahawks, you see them protecting Smith well enough to allow him to find holes in the Tampa secondary. Kenneth Walker III is the current favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year after carrying the ball 26 times for 109 yards and two scores against Arizona last week. The Bucs have a tougher run defense, but Walker has found holes and stacked up yards after contact this year. There is also the intangible factor of the 45-year-old Tom Brady dealing with jet lag and fatigue after an emotional finish last Sunday.
Why should you put your money on the Buccaneers?
Tampa Bay needs to get the running game going, as they only run for 60.7 yards per game and average just 3.0 yards per carry. The O-line has had some injuries and some other issues that contribute to this problem, and some have pointed a finger at Leonard Fournette, but he has picked up 489 yards (11th among NFL running backs). The passing game can click, but it hasn’t been putting up big numbers this season. Brady did post a 143.8 passer rating on the team’s game-winning drive last week, but he has not been able to sustain those numbers for an entire game. Through the first 12 drives, his aggregate passer rating was 69.9.
If you like the Buccaneers, you see their strong defense frustrating Smith and Walker, and you see Tampa Bay’s offense taking advantage of some holes in the Seattle secondary. Frankly, you also see the Seahawks regressing from their form earlier this season on both sides of the ball.
Final Score and Prediction
Too many people have been sleeping on the Seahawks and Geno Smith this season, and it sounds like the sports betting community is still making that mistake. I predict a final score of Seattle 27, Tampa Bay 20.
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