The Baltimore Ravens have a 7-4 record and lead the AFC North, thanks in part to the early gaffes of the Cincinnati Bengals. In three of their four losses, they have given up leads of at least two touchdowns, and in last week’s loss in Jacksonville, they gave up a nine-point lead. This suggests some major issues as far as finishing games on defense are concerned. The fact that they could only manage 13 points at home against Carolina two weeks ago is also a problem. Next up, though, should be a cakewalk, as the offensively challenged Denver Broncos stumble into town. When Nathaniel Hackett tells you that he’s not ready to bench Russell Wilson just yet, that should tell you everything you need to know about the dumpster fire known as the Bronco offense. Let’s break down this NFL betting decision for this AFC matchup.
NFL Preview: Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
(Sunday, December 4)
When: Sunday, December 4, 2022, 1:00 pm ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
TV: FOX
Radio: WGFX 104.5 FM Nashville / WIP 94.1 FM Philadelphia
Live Stream: Sling TV
NFL Odds: Baltimore -8.5 / O/U 39.5 // Baltimore -400 / Denver +310
Why should you bet on the Broncos?
This line started at Baltimore -6.5 and has steadily crept upward since then. Denver’s defense is third in the league in overall yards permitted (306.4), and they are third in scoring defense (17.6 points per game). They hold teams to just 184.7 passing yards, also third overall. So the Broncos might come in with the goal of grinding the game down to a defensive duel. However, they are outside the top 19 in passing yards, rushing yards and total offense, and they are dead last in the league in scoring (14.3 points per game).
I look back two weeks ago, when the Ravens struggled mightily to move the ball against another team with a moribund offense (Carolina). The Panthers’ defense is not as stout as the Broncos’, so a similar result could emerge. However, I see this doing more work for the “under” than for either side of the point spread.
Why should you put your money on the Ravens?
There’s only so much that Justin Tucker can do for the Ravens, so when they asked him to nail a 67-yard field goal (and break an NFL record in the process) in the waning seconds in Jacksonville, the fact that it fell short was not all that surprising. Denver has dropped three in a row, settling into the AFC West basement at 3-8. Even though the Ravens have struggled against teams that seem like they should represent easy wins, there are two reasons to take them, even with that big spread.
First is Lamar Jackson. He has a 62.1% pass completion rate and a 17:7 TD:INT ratio. He has thrown for 2,231 yards and run for 755 more, scoring three times on the ground. Denver does have a solid defense, only having permitted 20 or more points three times this year. Jackson should be able to find receivers down the field, though, as the Ravens have the O-line to give him time in the pocket. Second is that defense. Even though they are having a hard time closing games, their D-line has contributed to the league’s #2 rushing defense. Their sack total (35) is fifth-best overall. The Broncos only complete 58.1% of their passes, last in the league. So the Ravens’ defense should be able to control the rhythm of the game.
Final Score and Prediction
The Ravens are not a reliable team when it comes to building and holding leads. I think the Broncos will be able to slow down the Ravens’ offense – not enough to win, but to make scoring a slog. I predict a final score of Baltimore 23, Denver 9.
NFL Betting Odds
Love betting NFL football? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date NFL lines
