Since the Washington Commanders started 1-4, they have won five out of their last six to sit at 6-5, on the edge of the wild card race in the NFC. In the last two weeks, they have ended the dreams of an unbeaten season for the Philadelphia Eagles, and they have routed the Houston Texans on the road. Next up is a visit from the Atlanta Falcons (5-6), who have split their last four games. They beat the Carolina Panthers in overtime at home, lost to the Chargers and Panthers, and then beat the Chicago Bears by three, also at home. Which team can take a stride toward that last wild card? Check out our NFL betting preview.
NFL Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
(Sunday, November 27)
When: Sunday, November 27, 2022, 1:00 pm ET
Where: FedExField, Landover, MD
TV: FOX
Radio: WZGC 92.9 FM Atlanta / WBIG 100.3 FM Washington
Live Stream: Sling TV
NFL Odds: Washington -4.5 / O/U 40.5 // Washington -210 / Atlanta +175
Why should you bet on Atlanta?
Atlanta is a bit of an enigma this season. They have beaten Seattle, Cleveland and Chicago, and they routed the 49ers by two touchdowns, despite being in the middle of a rebuild. They have only lost two games by double digits, and three of their losses (to New Orleans, the Rams and the Chargers) have come by a total of eight points. So if the right Falcons show up, they could get back to .500 and get the tiebreaker against Washington for wild card considerations.
This spread is the largest that Washington has had as a favorite this season, including last week, when they were favored to beat Houston by three. If you like the Falcons, then you see their running game working. They are third in the NFL in total rushing yards and sixth in yards per attempt. They will have their work cut out for them, though, as Washington is sixth in the NFL in fewest rushing yards permitted and ninth in yards permitted per rushing attempt. Marcus Mariota is a savvy quarterback, though, so I see him picking his spots well.
Why should you put your money on the Commanders?
Washington’s run defense is rolling right now, led by Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen. If the Commanders can force Mariota into some third-and-long situations, that should benefit them, as Mariota has not excelled as a pocket passer in any of his NFL stops. It may be that the Falcons could go to Desmond Ridder if Mariota struggles, but it is not often that a rookie NFL debut leads to a big win, especially on the road.
Taylor Heinicke shows more confidence running the Washington offense this week, and he has the potential for another big game this week. Atlanta has permitted the most passing yards of any team in the league, and the Commanders have Terry McLaurin running routes. If you like the Commanders, you see their defensive confidence brimming once again and Heinicke making key plays to move the chains and sustain drives.
Final Score and Prediction
I’m not sure about this point spread, but the point total seems a bit low. The Washington defense has improved as the season has gone along, but Atlanta’s defense has been permissive, and the Falcons can also break big plays, particularly in the running game. I see Washington grinding out the win, but I see the Falcons making it interesting. I predict a final score of Washington 30, Atlanta 27.
NFL Betting Odds
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