AFC Win-Loss Projections to start with the best! Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is about to begin his 12th NFL season.
In his 11th season, his productivity definitely tapered off before the playoffs, when he seemed to reset mentally and delivered the same levels of production that we had come to expect.
At a press conference on Tuesday, reporters asked him if his snap count would be reduced against Baltimore on Thursday to help maintain his stamina, he indicated that there was no plan – and if there was, he said, “I probably wouldn’t have listened to them anyway.”
We don’t know how long Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice will be suspended, and we don’t know how close Hollywood Brown is to 100%, so Kelce might have to contribute a lot in the early weeks.
NFL Betting Analysis: AFC Win-Loss Projections for each Team
Check out our thoughts on the AFC Win-Loss Projections that the sports betting establishment has set up for each AFC team.
Kansas City Chiefs (11.5)
NextGen Stats reports that Patrick Mahomes threw 44 touchdown passes that traveled at least 20 yards through the air between 2018 and 2021 (the second-most during that time) but only has two of those since 2022.
Now that he has speedy Xavier Worthy on the field, maybe this trend returns. OVER.
^Baltimore Ravens (10.5)
The grinding AFC North will be difficult, but no one will grind harder than the Ravens, who have both Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson to pound the ball.
Will the Ravens’ defense be able to hold up their end of the bargain? OVER.
^Houston Texans (9.5)
The run-game will be better in Houston this year now that Joe Mixon is in town.
Also, C.J. Stroud has Stefon Diggs to go along with Tank Dell and Nico Collins in the wide receiver room, along with tight end Dalton Schultz. The pass rush is also improved. OVER.
^Cincinnati Bengals (10.5)
The Bengals have a fourth-place schedule this year, which will pay dividends in this tough AFC North.
But when will they pay Ja’Marr Chase and get him back to practice? Safeties Beno Stone and Vonn Bell, and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins give the defense a lot more credibility. OVER.
^N.Y. Jets (9.5)
This is suddenly a tough AFC East with three possible winning teams. How great will Aaron Rodgers be after a year of Achilles rehab?
Can the Jets go to San Francisco and get a win now that the holdout of 49ers left tackle Trent Williams has come to an end? UNDER.
^Buffalo Bills (10.5)
Matt Milano is gone from the defense to injury. Tre’Davious White has moved on from the secondary.
On offense, Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs have both left. Josh Allen has elite body control as a quarterback, but he throws way too many interceptions. UNDER.
^Miami Dolphins (9.5)
Tua Tagovailoa only needed an average of 2.36 seconds to get the ball out on pass attempts last year, and he was still able to have the fourth-highest rate (25% of targeting intermediate routes (between 10 and 20 yards through the air) according to NextGen Stats. OVER.
^Cleveland Browns (8.5)
Did you know that, according to NextGen Stats, Amari Cooper picked up 629 receiving yards on vertical patterns (corner, go, wheel and post routes)? That tied him for second with CeeDee Lamb in the NFL.
That was with a hodgepodge of five different quarterbacks. If Deshaun Watson returns as the real deal, what can Cooper accomplish? OVER.
^Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5)
Arthur Smith arrives as the new OC, and he is known for creative ways to get the ball moving on the ground.
That could help solve some of the issues that a questionable O-line creates, at least for some of the season. How much does Russell Wilson have left? UNDER.
^Jacksonville Jaguars (8.5)
Joshua Hines-Allen posted 96 pressures last season, the second-best total in the NFL, according to NextGen Stats.
The Jags have a new DC in Ryan Nielsen, and his scheme should loosen Hines-Allen up even more. Will Trevor Lawrence bounce back from a tough second half of 2023? UNDER.
^Indianapolis Colts (8.5)
The Colts were a fourth-down completion away from making the playoffs last year. They posted 51 sacks (fifth overall) and had four players with at least eight sacks (the most in the NFL).
The Colts added edge rusher Laiatu Latu in the first round after a breakout season at UCLA. Can Anthony Richardson stay healthy and lead the offense? OVER.
^L.A. Chargers (8.5)
So you keep Justin Herbert but get rid of his best receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen?
Sure, the defense has Khalil Mack, but new head coach Jim Harbaugh wants to go run-heavy? It will be interesting to see how this works. UNDER.
^Denver Broncos (5.5)
Could Bo Nix hop right into the NFL and succeed? He won the starting quarterback competition in camp.
Can the Broncos figure out how to stop the run after finishing 30th in that area last year? OVER.
^Tennessee Titans (6.5)
Last year’s Tennessee O-line was ranked 31st in the NFL. New head coach Brian Callahan has brought in his father, Bill, to coach the O-line, and that (along with some new signings) should make that unit better.
If Will Levis has time to pass and if Tony Pollard can get some holes to run through, this team should be serviceable, but this is a tough AFC South. UNDER.
^Las Vegas Raiders (6.5)
Raiders fans love Maxx Crosby, who notched pressures on almost 13% of his pass rushes last year.
The team added DT Christian Wilkins to make that front even less pleasant for opposing offenses. But can the offense move the ball? UNDER.
^New England Patriots (4.5)
Drake Maye, Joe Milton III or Jacoby Brissett? All three quarterbacks have upside and downside going in.
The defense could be tough, but will the offense wear them out with short drives? OVER.
^Let’s take a look at the AFC Super Bowl titles by division! 👀 pic.twitter.com/eOLDbe1Qyr
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 3, 2024
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