NFC Win-Loss Projections to start with the best! The NFC has a few intriguing teams vying for the top spot in the conference, but it’s hard to say (at least yet) that there are any teams we expect to dominate the season.
The San Francisco 49ers are the defending conference champions, but Christian McCaffrey’s calf strain and the team’s collapse in the Super Bowl make you wonder if they will start with a bit of a lull.
The Green Bay Packers pushed the 49ers hard in the playoffs, but they only really started playing elite football last November.
The Detroit Lions led San Francisco by 17 points at halftime of the NFC Championship – on the road, no less – but they collapsed on both sides of the ball.
They retooled their defense, but will they be able to bounce back?
The Dallas Cowboys are being given power rankings credibility after getting CeeDee Lamb to end his holdout by giving him an armored car full of money, but can this team overcome its mental hurdles against top teams?
NFL Betting Analysis: NFC Win-Loss Projections for each Team
We have your sports betting NFC Win-Loss Projections for each team in the conference.
Philadelphia Eagles (10.5)
Jason Kelce has retired – the anchor of the “Brotherly Shove” blocking scheme.
Saquon Barkley has come down I-95 from New York to join the offense. Both coordinators have been upgraded.
Jalen Hurts not only went 10 of 39 on passes with completion probability under 25% (according to NextGen Stats), which led the NFL, he completed 4.1% more of his attempts than expected, the third-highest number among quarterbacks who qualified.
He also seems to have figured out how to be a leader in the off-season. OVER.
^San Francisco 49ers (11.5)
Brock Purdy had the top passer rating, yards per attempt, success rate and passing EPA in 2023 (the last two numbers coming from NextGen Stats).
Brandon Aiyuk has ended his holdout, but left tackle Trent Williams is still waiting for his deal.
Luckily, the 49ers play in a division where everyone else is rebuilding. OVER.
^Detroit Lions (10.5)
Jared Goff had a 31:4 TD:INT ratio and a passer rating of 116.3 when he wasn’t under pressure.
Those numbers led and were second in the league, including the postseason, last yeaer. The Lions also have the top-ranked O-line in the league.
The last two seasons have seen them in the top five in total offense and scoring. The only potential area of danger is cornerback, where two rookies are looking at getting a lot of snaps. OVER.
^Atlanta Falcons (9.5)
Edge rusher Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons have given the Falcons’ defense credibility.
Jessie Bates III had six picks last year (third in the league) and should be up there again. We haven’t even mentioned the offense, which added Kirk Cousins. OVER.
^Green Bay Packers (9.5)
Can Jordan Love keep the momentum going at quarterback? He has a stout line in front of him – he was pressured in fewer than 2.5 seconds on just 9.4% of his drop backs last season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. OVER.
^Dallas Cowboys (9.5)
Yes, the Cowboys extended CeeDee Lamb. He was the most productive wide receiver against man-to-man coverage (70 targets, 49 catches, 794 yards).
He also led the league with 894 yards from the slot. However, the Cowboys play the AFC North, the NFC South, and Houston, in addition to their divisional games and their first-place conference games.
Their defense struggles against the run, and their secondary is touchable. UNDER.
^L.A. Rams (8.5)
Aaron Donald retired, and the team will miss the 473 pressures he notched between 2018 and 2023, according to NextGen Stats.
That’s eight more than any other player over that time frame, and 100 more than the next defensive tackle. How much does Matthew Stafford have left in the tank? UNDER.
^Chicago Bears (8.5)
Caleb Williams is getting all the hype as the top overall pick. We’re also hearing a lot about Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze coming to join him as wide receivers.
However, D.J. Moore, the only receiver in that top group who was on the Bears last year, caught +15.1 receptions more than expected last season. Only CeeDee Lamb had a higher number. UNDER.
^Seattle Seahawks (7.5)
According to NextGen Stats, Geno Smith posted a 50.1% success rate on pass attempts with zone coverage from the defense.
Only four other qualified passers got above 50.0% – Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Brock Purdy. But can the Seahawks’ defense get enough stops? OVER.
^Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.5)
The NFC South champions are going to fall this far? Mike Evans is projected to come in sixth among all wide receivers in touchdowns, and Chris Godwin is back and healthy – and ready to cause chaos out of the slot.
Baker Mayfield is locked in and healthy. OVER.
^New Orleans Saints (7.5)
Linebacker Demario Davis has allowed only 5.5 yards per target since coming to the Saints in 2018.
That’s the best number for all players who have had to defend 250 or more targets during that time period.
But can Derek Carr lead an offense for an entire season? UNDER.
^Minnesota Vikings (7.5)
Yes, Justin Jefferson is a transcendent talent at wide receiver. But can Sam Darnold, or Jaren Hall, get him the ball enough?
What does Aaron Jones have left in the tank? Is the Vikings’ defense good enough for this team to sniff .500? UNDER.
^Arizona Cardinals (7.5)
NextGen Stats reports that the Cardinals gained 224 rushing yards above expected on designed running plays, which was the fifth-highest number.
The route running of wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr should open up more chances for the run.
However, consistency from the quarterback and the defense remain a concern. UNDER.
^Washington Commanders (6.5)
Defensive tackle Jonathan Allen had 49 pressures and 37 tackles last year, according to Pro Football Focus.
He might be the most important player in Dan Quinn’s front seven this year. How NFL-ready is Jayden Daniels, though? OVER.
^N.Y. Giants (6.5)
The Giants have a terrific defensive front. Edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux posted 11.5 sacks last year.
Defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is second among all DTs with 49 quarterback hits since 2022.
Brian Burns comes in to make that front even scarier. However, Daniel Jones has not looked NFL-ready at quarterback, and he’s far from being a rookie. UNDER.
^Carolina Panthers (5.5)
The Panthers helped Bryce Young out tremendously by bringing in offensive guard Robert Hunt from Miami on a $100 million deal. He allowed the lowest pressure rate of any NFL guard last year (1.3%).
Plus, the Panthers added more skill around the second-year quarterback. OVER.
^.@TomBrady on if he would start Drake Maye:
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) September 3, 2024
"I think it's best for rookie quarterbacks to watch a veteran do it." pic.twitter.com/uzcTDGpwqc
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