Are you planning to include Super Bowl LVI in your NFL betting? Then you probably already know that the Los Angeles Rams opened as 3 ½-point favorites…and that the line has already grown on some books to 4 ½ points. The point total currently sits at 49 ½ points. Should you jump right on any of these wagers, or should you wait and see what the action brings in terms of shifts? Take a look at our thoughts about your best steps in the next few days.
NFL News: Betting Strategy for Super Bowl LVI
Remember that the Super Bowl Brings in a lot of Casual Bettors
If you are looking at a Week 16 game between, say, the Detroit Lions and the Jacksonville Jaguars, you’re not going to get nearly the wager volume that you will get on a marquee matchup like the Super Bowl. Much like the men’s college basketball tournament, people who never bet throughout the year will take the plunge and put some money down on this Rams-Bengals matchup.
This means that a lot of bettors will bet with the hype and take the favorite. It’s worth pointing out, of course, that Matthew Stafford is getting all sorts of hype as a hero heading to the Hall of Fame when he would be getting dragged all over Twitter if San Francisco safety Jaquiski Tartt had simply held onto the ball when Stafford threw him a duck of a pass in the fourth quarter. That drop set the stage for the Rams to finish their drive and tie the game with a field goal. A lot of casual bettors will simply look at the attention Stafford is getting and bet on him to win again, even though he had never won a playoff game until this season.
Offensive Balance is More Important than you Think
Coming into the playoffs, we had 14 teams, but the wild-card round really exposed six teams as non-contenders, as three of the four wild-card games were blowouts, and the San Francisco win over Dallas was not close, despite the six-point final margin of victory. That left us eight teams. In the divisional round, we had one track meet (Kansas City’s overtime win over Buffalo). Two of the other three games were grindfests in which the running game played a major role in the outcome. In the Green Bay-San Francisco game, neither offense could get much done in the snow after the Packers opened with a long touchdown drive, and it was a San Francisco punt block for a touchdown that sent the Packers home, but that game was more about the conditions than either offense. Cincinnati and Los Angeles won their divisional games by finding a way to stop the run and pressure the passer enough to force mistakes – and by sustaining drives on the ground.
Cincinnati pounded the ball against Kansas City in the fourth quarter, and the Chiefs had no answer. This wasn’t the first time; Joe Burrow ranked just 20th in the NFL in pass attempts per game because the Bengals were able to establish a running game with Joe Mixon and Samaji Perine. When you have the running game as a serious option, that means that you have a stout offensive line, and you have the execution to run-block and protect your passer without a rash of pre-snap and holding penalties. The Bengals were able to execute with that balance, while the Chiefs fell apart in the AFC Championship, with just 83 yards after halftime – and 49 of those came on the drive when the Chiefs came down to tie the game with a field goal and ended up moving from 1st-and-goal inside the 10 to 4th-and-goal from the 27 after Patrick Mahomes took two poor sacks.
So right now? I’m leaning toward the Bengals to win straight up. I”m going to let this line drift a little wider so I can get even more value – and I will also put down money on the spread for the Bengals to cover, just to hedge a bit in case of a late Rams miracle. The same goes for the point total – I’m happy with going under 49 ½ points, but I will be happier when this total inflates because people are expecting a track meet.
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