There are still about 3 ½ months between now and the start of the NFL 2024 regular season, but the rosters are largely set. There will still be some free agency signings to fill out rosters and compensate for injuries, but most of the players are where they will be. Many of the NFL teams that struggled in 2023 have improved their talent levels through the draft and free agency, and many of the coaching changes that took place represent real improvement. Let’s take a look at some teams that look like they’re trending up… and some teams that are trending down, as you start thinking about your betting NFL action.
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On the rise: Chicago Bears
NFL Trades: OC Shane Waldron, QB Caleb Williams, WR Keenan Allen, WR Rome Odunze
We’re not used to reading about the Bears as contenders, but their defense really came together down the stretch last year and they won four of their last six contests to finish at 7-10, a couple of games outside the NFC playoff picture. Shane Waldron comes to Chicago as the offensive coordinator charged with modernizing an attack that has produced an astonishingly short list of elite quarterbacks in the storied history of the franchise. If you go back to the leather-helmet days, there’s Sid Luckman. There was the brief heyday of Jim McMahon in the mid-1980s, but that Bears team that won Super Bowl XX was a run-first, defense-first team. If you look at the Bears’ schedule, getting to 10 or 11 wins and a wild-card playoff berth is far from beyond the realm of possibility.
On the decline: Dallas Cowboys
NFL Trades: Still waiting
Don’t get us wrong. The Cowboys did bring Ezekiel Elliott and Royce Freeman in at tailback. Using a couple of retreads to replace Tony Pollard is far from an upgrade, though. The team is heading into the regular season on the last year of the contracts of quarterback Dak Prescott and head coach Mike McCarthy, as Jerry Jones seems intent on a rebuild after this season. Last year, the Cowboys went 12-5, but that record included a game that the referees took away from the Detroit Lions. That gift and the utter collapse of the Philadelphia Eagles are the only reasons why the Cowboys won the NFC East. Their flaws were badly exposed in the wild-card embarrassment against Green Bay. A 6-11 or 7-10 record would not be surprising given the quality players that have left Dallas in free agency.
NFL Betting On the rise: Arizona Cardinals
NFL Trades: CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, OT Jonah Williams, WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Will the Arizona Cardinals become a factor again in the NFC? While the new additions – especially Harrison – are impressive, the answer to this question starts and begins with Kyler Murray. He didn’t have a good season in 2023, but the skill players around him were mid at best. DeAndre Hopkins left for Tennessee, leaving Murray with exactly zero speed and possession threats at wide receiver. Harrison comes in as one of the top prospects at this position in the modern football era. Seeing him pick up 1,000 or even 1,300 receiving yards as a rookie would not be a surprise. The O-line and the D-line have been refurbished, and Murphy-Bunting is a nice addition to a secondary that spent a lot of time in the highlights on SportsCenter last year – watching opposing wide receivers streak by them for big plays. Last year, the Cardinals finished just 4-13, and while I don’t see them getting to the playoffs (the NFC West is just too tough), but getting to 8-9 or 9-8 is quite doable.
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NFL Betting On the decline: N.Y. Jets
NFL Trades: WR Mike Williams, OT Tyron Smith, OT Olu Fashanu, DT Javon Kinclaw
If this regression happens, the league offices will likely have collective heart failure. After all, the Jets played in a ton of prime-time games last year as the NFL bet heavily on Aaron Rodgers making the Jets not just relevant but popular last season, but then he went down just a few plays into the season opener with a torn Achilles tendon. All reports from the Jets’ OTAs indicate that Rodgers is operating at 100%. At the age of 40, though, he is likely to need help. Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is basically relying on Rodgers’ goodwill at this point. Head coach Robert Saleh has shown that he can build an ironclad defense and motivate the troops – they managed to go 7-10 in 2023 despite using the likes of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White at quarterback. However, if Rodgers is rusty, and if the wide receivers can’t get that separation, this is a team that could win somewhere between six and nine games and miss the playoffs again – which would definitely be a decline since that would happen with their latest franchise quarterback.
NFL Betting On the rise: Carolina Panthers
NFL Trades: Head Coach Dave Canales, WR Dionate Johnson, OG Damien Lewis, WR Xavier Legette, OG Robert Hunt
A lot of people were optimistic about the Panthers last year after they drafted Bryce Young as their next franchise quarterback. It was hard to predict that Frank Reich would do such an awful job at head coach after he was credited with major contributions to Philadelphia’s Super Bowl title when he was the OC under Doug Pederson. The Panthers also went and got exactly zero help at wide receiver for Young. This time around, he has two new offensive guards, and the team brought in Johnson from Pittsburgh as a separation wide receiver. The new head coach, Dave Canales, was Baker Mayfield’s OC in Tampa Bay last year, and that partnership flourished. The NFC South is kind of a garage sale right now, and there’s nothing keeping the Panthers from making a push for the postseason.
NFL Betting On the rise: L.A. Chargers
NFL Trades: Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, RB Gus Edwards, RB J.K. Dobbins, OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey
The Chargers went 5-12 in 2023 despite having an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert and two elite receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Allen and Williams are also gone, but instead of going back to the roots of the franchise and rebuilding the Air Coryell offense, Jim Harbaugh went and got both of the tailbacks that the Ravens were letting go (Dobbins and Edwards) because Derrick Henry was coming to town. For Chargers fans, just having Brandon Staley’s misguided arrogance off the sideline is going to be a sign that the team is on the rise. With two legitimate tailbacks on the roster, the Chargers’ offense should be more balanced, which allows Herbert to contribute instead of expecting him to do everything. The AFC West looked stacked going into 2024, but this time around it looks like a pair of rebuilding teams (the Raiders and the Broncos), an elite defending Super Bowl champion (the Chiefs), and this enigma known as the Chargers. Getting to 10 wins could easily happen, unless Harbaugh decides to start channeling Urban Meyer this time around.
Back-to-back rushing titles for @CMC_22?
— NFL (@NFL) May 17, 2024
Or will someone else take the throne? 👀 pic.twitter.com/tZjU7k7zIz
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