All NFL stadiums will open at 100 percent capacity for the first time since 2019, and fans are excited about the start of the 2021 campaign. The Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers open the year this Thursday with a visit from the Dallas Cowboys.
As we look to the season from a NFL betting perspective, there are some trends going into this first week of action that you can leverage to your advantage.
NFL News: Week 1 Trends Every Bettor Should Be Aware Of
Go with the underdog
Between 2012 and 2019, underdogs covered in 56.3% of the matchups in Week 1, posting a 67-52-6 record. The 2020 season was a bit of an outlier, but there were no preseason games played ahead of the regular campaign. This year, the preseason was reduced to three games instead of four, as the regular season increased from 16 to 17 games. Why do underdogs have such good luck in the opener? The teams that are more established at the skill positions do not play their starters as much, while teams that are looking to rebuild or take a step forward often have younger players at those positions, and they get more game time in the preseason. So while some of the established teams are still meshing in a lot of the openers, the underdogs have their systems a bit more firmly in place, which means that while the favorites might still come back for a straight up win, they don’t cover the spread as much this week.
Take Tampa Bay over Dallas. Just do it.
Super Bowl champions are 13-4-3 against the spread in Week 1 the next year since 2001. When they are the home team in a Thursday season opener, they are 8-2-3 against the spread. The Buccaneers have been 7 ½-point favorites just about since action opened on this game. Why? The Dallas defense has a lot of talent this time around, but it’s young, and the team also has a new defensive system to implement under incoming defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. The Cowboys have developed an entitlement culture under Jerry Jones despite a body of work that, in the last 25 years, is mediocre at best, and that culture emerges in matchups against top teams. The point total for this game is 50.5. I was thinking about going “over” until I read that Dallas guard Zack Martin will not play after testing positive for COVID-19. He is the team’s best offensive lineman, and if you watched Super Bowl LV, then you know all about that Tampa Bay pass rush.
New England will beat Miami
The Patriots’ decision to cut Cam Newton shows a couple of things: Bill Belichick has a ton of confidence in rookie quarterback Mac Jones, and that he also has a ton of confidence in his O-line. Why? Jones will start in Week 1 fresh out of finishing a campaign at Alabama, against a Miami defense that is stout on all three levels. If Jones were to go down, the Patriots would have to trot out either Brian Hoyer or Garrett Gilbert at quarterback, as Jarrett Stidham is still eight weeks away from returning to play. My confidence in the Pats here is more about defense and game planning than about Jones emerging as a force in Week 1, though. Jones will have his yips in the opener, but the Patriot defense will keep Tua Tagovailoa from doing a whole lot of damage when Miami has the ball. Tagovailoa is not fast enough to be much of a threat with his legs, and while he is accurate on mid-range passing, he really hasn’t shown much damage down the field since that crazy bomb against Georgia in the national championship game during his freshman year at Alabama. With a steady pass rush and confusing coverage schemes, the Patriots will turn this into a grinding, slow game, and they will win.
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