Bills vs Patriots Betting Picks and Prediction for Week 7

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The Buffalo Bills head to New England as 8 ½-point road favorites, which seems a little rich since the Bills’ last two games have included an embarrassing five-point loss to Jacksonville in London and an even more frustrating five-point win over the New York Giants at home last week, with the Bills’ offense looking confused two straight weeks after dropping 48 on Miami on October 1. The last time the Patriots were underdogs by this many points at home, the year was 2001, and Tom Brady was making his debut at starting quarterback. On that day, the Pats were 12 ½-point home dogs against Indianapolis (led by Peyton Manning). The Patriots rolled, 44-13, thanks in part to two pick-sixes. With Buffalo and Miami coming up next, that could turn into a 1-7 start. How should you handle your NFL betting for this matchup? Read on to get our perspective.

Week 7 NFL Bills vs Patriots Betting Odds: Today’s Patriots have lost 25 games over three seasons since Tom Brady left, and now the team sits at 1-5 for the first time in 28 years.

When: Sunday, October 22, 2023, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
TV: CBS
Radio: WGR 550 AM Buffalo / WBZ 98.5 FM Boston
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Buffalo -8.5 / O/U 40 // Buffalo -420 / New England +320

Why should you bet on the Bills?

The Bills have a four-game winning streak against the Patriots; the last New England win came on December 6, 2021, when Bill Belichick only called a handful of pass plays on a windy night in Buffalo, daring the Bills to stop the Patriots’ running game. It didn’t work, and the Bills couldn’t get much done in their passing game given the conditions, and the Pats won, 14-10. The Bills went to New England 20 days later and won by 12. Last year, when the teams met at Gillette Stadium, Buffalo won, 24-10, so the Bills would have covered this line in both of their previous meetings.

Admittedly, the Bills’ offense does come in on fumes. They squeaked by the Giants last week, and penalties and turnovers have caused problems this season. Josh Allen has thrown for 1,576 yards and completed 71.7% of his passes, but he also has six picks to go along with his 13 touchdown passes. Stefon Diggs leads the team with 49 catches for 620 yards and five scores, but he has been demonstrably upset about the offense the last two weeks. The Bills’ defense has been terrific on the pass rush, with Leonard Floyd leading the team with 6 ½ sacks and Ed Oliver and A.J. Epenesa posting four apiece, but the team has also lost the first quarter in three of their last four games against losing teams.

Bet on the Bills to Win Today

Why should you put your money on the Patriots?

The Patriots started the 2023 season with a pair of tough losses to Philadelphia and Miami, but those losses were expected and only came by a combined 12 points. Then they followed the losses up with a gritty, 15-10 win, at the Jets. The floodgates opened after that, as the Cowboys and Saints routed the Patriots by a combined score of 71-3. Things improved last week in Las Vegas, but the Raiders still won, 21-17, despite Jimmy Garoppolo going down to injury.

Mac Jones has put up unsightly numbers at quarterback, with just 1,208 yards through six games, and seven interceptions against just five touchdown passes. Rhamondre Stevenson (234 yards, 2 TD) and Ezekiel Elliott (193 yards) are the two featured backs, but the fact that the team’s leading receiver, Kendrick Bourne, has only found the end zone twice is not an endorsement of the passing game. The defense has posted 12 sacks on the year, but just two interceptions. The fact that the Patriots are 0-9 against the spread in their last nine games as underdogs shows that this is no longer a team culture that exceeds expectations.

Bet on the Patriots to Win Today

Bills vs Patriots Final Score and Prediction

The Bills will come to Gillette looking to work out some frustrations, and they have shown that they can get by the Patriots with relative ease the last two seasons. The Bills are tied for first in sacks in the NFL this year with 24, and they are the only team in the league in the top five for both sacks and interceptions. Mac Jones has thrown seven picks already and has not gotten much protection from his O-line. I predict a long day for the Pats – and a 37-9 Bills win.

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