Thursday Night Football Picks for Week 16: The Los Angeles Chargers became the latest victim of the whirling dervishes known as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
After losing four games in a row (by just a combined 24 points), the Bucs have reeled off four wins in a row.
The Chargers, despite their first three losses against unimpressive opponents like the Giants, Carolina, and Las Vegas, are now considering themselves playoff contenders, as Tampa Bay’s 40-17 road win signals the start of their stretch run.
The Chargers (8-6) now have just a few days to regroup before the arrival of another AFC West team with eyes on a wild-card playoff slot – the 9-5 Denver Broncos.
Both teams have identical 2-2 division records, but the Chargers won the earlier meeting in Denver, so a win here would give the Chargers the head-to-head tiebreaker on the season.
The Broncos also come in on a four-game winning streak (Atlanta, Las Vegas, Cleveland, and Indianapolis), but three of those four wins have come at home.
While rookie quarterback Bo Nix has jumped up the learning curve in a hurry this year, the Chargers have Justin Herbert, who became the third-youngest player in NFL history to surpass 20,000 career passing yards.
Can the Chargers recover on defense enough to get to ten wins and move a game ahead of the Broncos in terms of divisional record? Don’t miss our online betting prediction.
Thursday Night Football Picks: Broncos at Chargers – Week 16 NFL 2024/25 Season
NFL Spreads and Totals: Los Angeles -3 / O/U 42
Moneylines: Denver +124 / Los Angeles -152
When: Thursday, December 19, 2024, 8:15 pm ET
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
TV: Prime Video
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Prime Video
Thursday Night Football Picks, Final Score and Prediction for Broncos at Chargers
Denver Injuries
For the Broncos, cornerback Pat Surtain II (ankle) was a full practice participant and is expected to play Thursday. The Broncos who did not practice included defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers, defensive tackle D.J. Jones (finger), tailback Jaleel McLaughlin (quad), and cornerback Riley Moss (knee).
Los Angeles Injuries
For the Chargers, Justin Herbert (ankle) was limited in practice Monday but is expected to play. Linebacker Denzel Perryman (groin) and cornerback Kristian Fulton (knee) were also limited and are listed as questionable. The Chargers who did not practice included defensive lineman Otito Ogbonnia (pelvis), defensive back Elijah Molden (knee), wide receiver Quentin Johnston (ankle), tight end Will Dissly (shoulder), and cornerback Cam Hart (concussion).
The Chargers have already beaten Denver once this season, and this is a team that knows how to come out and take charge of a game from the beginning. When they have had reversals after halftime, those have come against teams with a more consistent offense in terms of ball security. Denver has a young quarterback and lacks an established top tailback, and the Chargers should be able to leverage that into three-and-outs and turnovers.
I predict a final score of Los Angeles 23, Denver 16.
^Betting Denver Broncos
The Broncos stopped a Colts team that was chasing them for a wild-card slot while Miami and the Chargers, two of their wild-card competitors, faltered in their games. Three touchdowns in the fourth quarter turned a tight game into a laugher. Marvin Mims Jr took a punt 60 yards to the house, and linebacker Nik Bonitto added a defensive touchdown just over a minute later, and now Denver has the sixth seed in the AFC, if they can hold onto it.
Offensive
However, their offense was not a major part of the victory. Bo Nix went 20 of 33, but he only threw for 130 yards. Part of this had to do with swirling winds, and part of this had to do with relying on checkdowns. He also threw a pick in the first quarter and then threw two more after halftime, but the Colts could not turn those turnovers into points. The running game was nonexistent for much of the game, with the tailbacks combining for just eight attempts and 15 yards in the first half. Midway through the third quarter, the Bronco running backs had just ten carries combined. That’s a lot of pressure to put on the shoulders of Nix, who, we should remember, is still a rookie.
Domes in favor?
Playing in domes has worked well for the Broncos so far this season. They’ve played in two domes (against Las Vegas and New Orleans), winning the two games by a combined 62-29. They have won four in a row and six of eight. The outcome of this game is crucial because the winner would likely meet Pittsburgh in the wild-card round, while the loser is likely to be heading to Buffalo. While the Broncos’ offense struggled for much of the game against the Colts, the defense was elite. Ball security must be a priority for the Broncos, though, as Nix will not be able to win a game throwing three picks against this team.
^Betting Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ defense was exposed last week for the first time. Coming into the Tampa Bay game, Los Angeles had the top scoring defense in the NFL. Then Tampa Bay came in and dropped 40 points, doing whatever they wanted through the air and on the ground. Baker Mayfield threw for 288 yards and four scores. Wide receiver Mike Evans caught nine balls for 159 yards and two scores. Tailback Bucky Irving only needed 15 carries to tally 117 yards. The last time the Chargers gave up 40 or more points was Week 15 of the 2023 campaign.
Offensive
On offense, things weren’t much better. It’s true that quarterback Justin Herbert came in less than 100% thanks to a left ankle sprain. Against Tampa Bay, he held onto the ball longer than he should have, and so he missed some wide-open receivers and took sacks that he normally would not take. He threw a pick in the third quarter that ended a run of 357 pass attempts without an interception, the fifth-longest such streak in league history. While it’s likely that a lot of this was a one-game blip due to Herbert’s difficulty dealing with the ankle injury, the Chargers were shut out after halftime for the third time this season, which ties them for a dubious league lead. That’s the sort of trend that the Broncos could leverage into a win.
The Advice
As bad as the Buccaneers game got, there was a point when the Chargers actually led, 17-10, before the Bucs ran off 30 unanswered points to finish the game. The Chargers had the ball with a chance to build a 24-10 lead. However, they made some mistakes on offense and had to punt, giving the Buccaneers a chance to drive down and kick a field goal just before the intermission. After that, the Chargers could not move the ball. If you like Los Angeles in this game, then you see them using their ferocious pass rush to force Nix into mistakes and taking advantage of his turnovers.
^Current AFC Playoff Picture:
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) December 17, 2024
1. Chiefs (13-1)
2. Bills (11-3)
3. Steelers (10-4)
4. Texans (9-5)
5. Ravens (9-5)
6. Broncos (9-5)
7. Chargers (8-6)
In the Hunt: Colts, Dolphins, Bengals (6-8)
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Thursday Night Football Picks: Denver Broncos at Chargers, Week 16
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