NFL Game Odds: Broncos vs Saints TNF | Sean Payton returns to the site of his greatest days of NFL glory as a head coach when he takes his Denver Broncos to New Orleans to take on the Saints on TNF.
Denver (3-3) had started the season with two setbacks before reeling off three wins in a row.
They fell behind the L.A. Chargers, 20-0, at the half last week – and only had 60 yards of total offense – before figuring a few things out and starting a comeback that fell just short (23-16).
The Saints are also looking to bounce back after taking a drubbing from Tampa Bay at home on Sunday.
Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler made his first career start and looked promising at times, but the Buccaneers were able to shut the Saints out after the intermission and rolled to a 51-27 win.
Payton had coached the Saints for 15 seasons and led the franchise to its only Super Bowl title. The Saints’ current head coach, Dennis Allen, was one of Payton’s assistants for seven seasons.
Both coaches say that their focus is on the field, but emotions are sure to play a role – and so will the crowd’s greetings for the team’s former head coach.
Let’s look at this midweek showdown as you plan your sports betting for Week 7 of the NFL season.
NFL Game Odds: Broncos vs Saints TNF in Week 7 | NFL 2024/25 Season
When: Thursday, October 17, 2024, 8:15 pm ET
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Opening NFL Game Odds Subject to Change: Denver -2.5 / O/U 37
TNF Denver Broncos -146
Denver lost defensive star Patrick Surtain II to a concussion on their first defensive snap on Sunday, which made things a lot easier for Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense. The Broncos permitted 350 yards of offense and allowed 11 of 18 successful third down conversions without generating any turnovers. They were out on the field for over 37 minutes. Surtain remains in the concussion protocol so the defense may need to figure out how to stop the New Orleans Saints without him. They didn’t blitz as much, allowing the Chargers to go up 23-0 heading into the fourth quarter.
The Offensive
The Broncos’ offense obviously struggled through those first three quarters, and the team looked like they were headed to their first home shutout in the 65-year history of the franchise. However, they shook off that five-punt, two-turnover start and started to come back. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix led the Broncos on a 95-yard scoring drive and threw a two-yard touchdown pass to Troy Franklin. Then he dropped a 15-yard touchdown pass to a diving Courtland Sutton, but the team failed on a two-point conversion. After forcing a punt, they got to the Los Angeles 32 and nailed a field goal to get within seven with 59 seconds left in regulation. The onside kick didn’t go their way, though, and the final score stood at 23-16.
Tuesday's #DENvsNO injury report:
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 15, 2024
Note: We held a walkthrough today, so this report is an estimation.
📰 » https://t.co/94twOPGtjl pic.twitter.com/owMdKhNc6P
If you like the Broncos this week, you see their strong defense bouncing back on the short week, even with Surtain potentially out. You also might be aware that the Saints have a five-game losing streak in Thursday games. Denver has a 5-0 straight up streak going against NFC teams caught in a losing streak. They have also bounced back as favorites coming after a loss, scoring the first touchdown in five of those games in a row. Finally, the Saints have a seven-game home losing streak against the spread in games coming after a loss to an NFC South foe. Even without all these numbers, there’s also the fact that the Broncos will bring their tough pass rush to bear against rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, who will be making just his second start.
^TNF New Orleans Saints +119
Remember when the New Orleans Saints waltzed out of AT&T Stadium with a 2-0 record after having demolished Carolina and Dallas, scoring 91 points in the two games? Well, since then, the Saints have lost four in a row, and we’ve also learned that both the Panthers and the Cowboys have a difficult time against rosters with legitimate NFL players at all of the skill positions. It certainly doesn’t help that Derek Carr has an uncertain timetable to return after an oblique injury, but the Saints should draw some encouragement from their first-half comeback against Tampa Bay.
The Bucs went up 17-0, but the Saints leveraged three turnovers and some savvy play from Rattler into a 27-24 halftime lead. They should probably forget (but learn from) the second half, when Tampa Bay turned on the jets and rolled to a 51-27 win. Three Saints had shots to tackle Chris Godwin on a 55-yard catch-and-run early in the third quarter, and they all missed. On the day, Tampa Bay became just the fifth team ever to put up 300 passing yards and 275 rushing yards in the same game; their 594 total yards were the second-highest total that the team had ever permitted.
Rattler on plays outside the pocket:
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 15, 2024
"3 or 4 of those we improvised… We (Rattler and Moreau) were on the same page… That was the first time it happened, so it's a good sign." pic.twitter.com/kVwdFO5BBi
The Offensive
The good news for Saints fans is that the Broncos’ offense is well behind Tampa Bay’s in terms of productivity. They have struggled to run the ball consistently, which has put more pressure on Nix at key points in games. Nix has shown he can lead the team aggressively and is willing to put balls into tight windows. However, the Saints have a physical front seven – even if they got dismantled last Sunday. The short week means that they don’t have time to feel sorry for themselves – instead, they have to get right back to preparation. v
They will need to load up in pass protection, perhaps adding a fullback to their formations to protect Rattler as Denver is second in the NFL in sacks. If we look at some of the numbers, it’s time to keep an eye on Alvin Kamara, who has at least one touchdown in four straight Saints games after a home loss. He has also picked up at least 119 scrimmage yards in the team’s last four home games in October against AFC teams.
^NFL Game Odds: Broncos vs Saints TNF Final Score and Prediction
The injury list for the Saints is significant this week. In addition to missing Derek Carr, the Saints could also have to play without wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. They are missing several offensive linemen, and linebacker Pete Werner is also questionable.
Injury List
Taysom Hill (ribs), wide receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr (ankle), Alvin Kamara (hand), Payton Turner (knee), defensive tackle Nathan Shepherd (groin, safety J.T. Gray (calf), and cornerback Alontae Taylor (shoulder) were all limited in practice on Tuesday. Denver might not have Surtain back from the concussion protocol, but their injury list is much smaller. Ja’Quan McMillan (ankle), Riley Moss (hip), and Alex Palczewski (ankle) were limited in practice on Tuesday, but Surtain was the only one held out.
Coming back off a short week, it’s hard to see New Orleans bouncing back and having a big night. That’s a lot to ask from a rookie quarterback making his second start, particularly with all of the injuries on both sides of the ball. Bo Nix is also a rookie, but he had more success (and more years of experience) in college, he’s had more experience at the NFL level, and the Broncos don’t have nearly the injured list that the Saints have.
I see the Broncos winning ugly, 23-16.
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