Can the Patriots Beat the NFL Odds?

A couple of months can make a huge difference in the NFL. At the end of September, the New England Patriots were sitting at 2-2, and all the talk was about how the Brady/Bellicheck magic was over. That all seems patently ridiculous now, as the Pats finished the season with one of the best records in football. They will host the upstart Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game this weekend, with the chance to go to yet another Super Bowl, regardless what the existing NFL odds show. The Patriots (-290) are 6.5-point favorites over the Colts in the big game, but there is some reasons to have a few doubts about this team again. The last three games that they have played have been less than convincing, struggling to beat the Jets, losing to the Bills, and winning in a dogfight against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Championship. That last game saw the Patriots only have the lead once in their 35-31 win, although that lead was the most important one. If the defense gives up 31 points to Joe Flacco, what are they likely to surrender to Andrew Luck?

Panini Game Matchups: “Brady knows how to dial it up this time of year” http://t.co/zfttVNHn6k pic.twitter.com/UDtiv7se8F — New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 16, 2015

The home field advantage held by the Patriots would certainly suggest that they would move on to the Super Bowl, but the Broncos also believed that playing at home versus the Colts would see them move on, which we all know now was not the case. There are sure to be those who will point to the experience factor as being what gives the Patriots the edge, but at this point, the Colts are essentially playing with house money. Furthermore, Luck has stopped making the poor decision over the past two weeks that plagued him all year. This could prove to be a match-up for the ages. The general consensus is that the Patriots will win and move on, as they are second favorites (+120) to win the Super Bowl, with the reigning champion Seahawks seemingly everyone’s pick to win it all once more. You can certainly never count out Tom Brady, and Bill Bellicheck has proven time and again that he can outcoach anyone. All of that said, they still have to get by the dark horse team of the playoffs so far, and that is going to be no easy task. If you are looking for an upset pick this weekend, perhaps look no further than the AFC Championship Game.