Sam Darnold has had a bit of a rebirth in Carolina, showing as much poise as he ever has in the NFL. It helps to have talent around him on offense, and it also helps that the Carolina D has been a wrecking crew through two weeks, including a 26-7 thrashing of the New Orleans Saints last week. They visit the Houston Texans in Week 3 — and the Texans are already taking on water. They surprised most sports betting observers with a spirited win over Jacksonville and then led Cleveland by 14 on the road before Tyrod Taylor went down with a hamstring injury. Now it looks like Davis Mills will have to lead the offense on a short week.
Take a closer look at our NFL betting preview of this prime time showdown.
NFL Preview: Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (Sunday, September 26)
When: Thursday, September 23, 2021, 8:20 pm ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: NFL Network
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Carolina -7 / O/U 43
Why should you bet on the Panthers?
Carolina’s defense has risen from average to elite between 2020 and 2021. In their first two games, they have permitted 21 points. Against the Saints in Week 2, they permitted only 128 yards and six first downs. That was the lowest yardage output for any New Orleans team under Sean Payton, as Jameis Winston threw two interceptions and only picked up 111 yards. The Panthers get after the quarterback, leading the NFL with 10 sacks from six players, led by Haason Reddick, with three. They get this pressure without having to blitz much — they only bitz about one play out of every six.
The Panthers get to feast on Davis Mills, the rookie out of Stanford. Interestingly, Tyrod Taylor has been replaced by three rookies since 2018, including Baker Mayfield (Cleveland) and Justin Herbert (the Chargers). Deshaun Watson will not play until the status of the civil and criminal allegations against him is clarified — even if that were not an issue, he has already asked for a trade, which has not happened. Jeff Driskel would back up Mills on Thursday, and neither of those quarterbacks should be able to do much against the Panthers.
Why should you put your money on the Texans?
Betting on the Texans to cover gives you some value, and Mills did take some lumps last week for Houston, going just 8 of 18 for 102 yards, a touchdown and a pick. His completed passes averaged 5.7 yards through the air, which is not surprising, given the number of checkdowns that he did. Given that he is a rookie, taking the safe option is smart. Expect the offense to be even simpler than usual for Mills.
Sam Darnold has been inconsistent in the past, and if the Texans count mount the sort of pressure they mounted against Trevor Lawrence in Week 1, they could force the sort of mistakes that Darnold periodically made while with the Jets. The Texans showed a lot of spirit in their opener — and in the first half against Cleveland. So if you like Houston, you see Carolina perhaps coming in a bit casually and the Texans taking advantage.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Carolina looks like a brand new team this season under Matt Rhule. The Panthers were always disciplined under Ron Rivera, but the defensive culture that Rhule has fostered makes this team a tough opponent. The Texans, to David Culley’s credit, are playing with plenty of passion and effort, but with a rookie quarterback who doesn’t have the presence of a Zach Wilson or a Trevor Lawrence, it’s hard to pick them even to cover. I predict a final score of Carolina 23, Houston 13.
NFL Betting Odds
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