Saturday night’s AFC Wild Card game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Chargers could be a preview of future playoff showdowns to come, as Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence make their postseason debuts. Both threw for over 4,000 yards this season, and the Jaguars have really come on strong in the second half, turning a 4-8 start into a 9-8 finish. The Chargers (10-7) were knocked off mysteriously by Denver in Week 18 but look to bounce back with a road win to start their playoff march. Let’s break down this NFL Playoffs betting matchup as you consider your weekend wagering.
NFL Preview: AFC Wild Card Playoff (Saturday, January 14)
L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
When: Saturday, January 14, 2023, 8:15 pm ET
Where: TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
TV: NBC
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Sling TV
NFL Odds: NFL PlayoffsLos Angeles -1.5 / O/U 47.5 // Jacksonville +115 / Los Angeles -135
→ Why should you bet on the Chargers?
The Chargers look to avenge an ugly 38-10 beating that the Jaguars administered to them back in Week 3 at SoFi Stadium. The Jaguars limited the Chargers to just 26 rushing yards in that game and had a pair of takeaways. In that game, Sony Michel needed five carries to get 22 yards, and Herbert threw for 297 yards with one score and one pick.
The Chargers were not a scoring juggernaut this season, putting up just 23 points per game. On defense, they permitted 22.6 points per game, and their run defense allowed 145.8 yards per game, which is an ominous number going into the postseason. Austin Ekeler ran for 915 yards and 13 scores to lead the tailback unit, and the top receiver, Mike Williams, had to leave Week 18’s loss on a cart with a back injury and has not practiced this week. Joshua Palmer is the second-leading receiver with three touchdowns and 769 receiving yards. Drue Tranquill keys the defense with 95 solo tackles and five sacks, and Khalil Mack leads the team in sacks with eight on the season, along with 33 solo tackles and three forced fumbles.
→ Why should you put your money on the Jaguars?
When the Jaguars routed the Chargers in Week 3, Trevor Lawrence threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns, and the team had 413 yards of total offense. It helped that the Chargers turned the ball over twice, but the most surprising part of this game was the inability of the Chargers’ defense to stop the Jaguars all day long. It appears that this game was just an early predictor of how electric the Jacksonville offense would become.
The Jaguars also don’t average a ton of points (just 23.8 per game), but their defense only permits 20.6 per game. Lawrence has posted a 25:8 TD:INT ratio on the season, and while he has been limited in practice this week with a toe injury, he is expected to play on Saturday night. His top target has been Christian Kirk (1,108 yards, 8 TD, 13.2 yards per catch). Josh Allen leads the team in sacks, with six, and he has 35 solo tackles along with four forced fumbles. Foyseade Oluokun leads the team in tackles with 128 solo, along with 12 tackles for loss and two sacks and two forced fumbles. The team has 14 interceptions, with four defensive backs posting three apiece.
→ Final Score and Prediction
I understand why the Chargers are favored, but I don’t see them going across the country and taking this win. Jacksonville is confident on both sides of the ball, and their momentum is strong at this point. In front of their home crowd, I predict the Jaguars will win, 27-23.
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