The Kansas City Chiefs had an offensive explosion in Week 1, with four touchdown passes in the first half as they rolled over the Arizona Cardinals, 44-21. They only scored 44 points combined in Weeks 2 and 3, edging the Chargers, 27-24 (thanks to a 99-yard pick-six late in the fourth quarter) and then losing in Indianapolis, 20-17. The fact that the Chiefs’ offense has already started to stall is not promising for the team’s AFC contention hopes, and things don’t get much easier this week, as they visit Tampa Bay in prime time. The Buccaneers also come in at 2-1 after only managing 12 points against Green Bay at home last week. Given the number of weapons the Tampa Bay offense has (and given the relative generosity of the Packer defense), that number was surprising. Which offense will get back on track? We have an idea – as well as some NFL betting suggestions.
NFL Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Sunday, October 2)
When: Sunday, October 2, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
TV: NBC
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Sling TV
NFL Odds: Pick ‘em / O/U 44 // Kansas City -110 / Tampa Bay -110
Why should you bet on the Chiefs?
Against Indianapolis, the Chiefs were up, 17-13, going into the fourth period. However, they could not hold the lead as the Colts got a touchdown to win, 20-17. Patrick Mahomes had 262 yards and a touchdown pass, but he also threw an interception. The Chiefs’ running game was particularly unproductive, as Mahomes ended the game as the team’s leading rusher, with 26 yards on four carries.
The Chiefs have not bounced back well for sports bettors in recent years. They have only covered six times in their last 19 games coming after a loss against the spread. Week 4 has been good for them, as they have covered four times in their last five games at this point on the calendar, but it’s often tricky to trust that type of historical data. They face a Buccaneers team that gets after the quarterback and can shut down the running game, much like what they saw in Indianapolis last week. If you like Kansas City, you see their desire for redemption against the team that stopped them in Super Bowl LV getting their offense back to its normally productive levels.
Why should you put your money on the Buccaneers?
The Buccaneers kept shooting themselves in the foot against Green Bay last week, as they only managed a field goal in the first half. Tom Brady would throw for 271 yards and a touchdown, with that score coming with just 14 seconds remaining in regulation. However, the Buccaneers were unsuccessful at a two-point conversion attempt. Russell Gage led all receivers with 87 yards on a dozen catches (including that touchdown), but given the receiving talent that is on this roster, Tampa Bay should have been able to get a lot more going. Tailback Leonard Fournette also struggled to find running room, so the offensive line is going to have to do a much better job of opening holes and protecting Brady.
At home, Tampa Bay has done well for bettors, covering in 11 of their last 15 games at Raymond James. They have also covered in nine of their last 13 games overall. Against teams with records above .500, they have covered in four of their last five games. Last week, they lost a pair of fumbles, only ran for 34 yards and converted just 2 of 11 third-down attempts. Those are numbers that should improve this week.
Final Score and Prediction
I like the Bucs to break out a bit here, as the Chiefs don’t have the stoutest defense, while Tampa Bay still prioritizes shutting down the opposition and held Aaron Rodgers largely at bay last week – if you can hold him to two touchdowns, you have to like your chances to win. I predict a final score of Tampa Bay 24, Kansas City 20.
NFL Betting Odds
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