The Kansas City Chiefs lead the NFL in dropped passes, a statistic that has frustrated quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Kadarius Toney had a perfect pass clank off his hands and end up in the hands of a New England defender in last week’s win over the Patriots, leading to a mini-rant from Mahomes on the sideline. Their next game involves a visit from the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that the Chiefs have beaten six times in a row and 11 times in their last 12. They have scored 30 or more points against the Raiders in eight straight matchups. He has the highest passer rating (113.5) of any Las Vegas opponent in franchise history with a minimum of six stars, and he has thrown 29 touchdown passes against the Raiders, his highest total against any other team. With a win, the Chiefs can clinch their eighth consecutive AFC West crown. Can they pull it off? Don’t miss our NFL betting preview.
NFL Preview: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
When: Monday, December 25, 2023, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
TV: CBS
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Hulu+
NFL Odds: Kansas City -10 / O/U 40.5 // Kansas City -500 / Las Vegas +380
Why should you bet on the Raiders?
It’s hard to imagine two more different games than the last two the Raiders have played: a 3-0 loss at Minnesota and that 63-21 shellacking of the Chargers. For the year, even with that 63-point outburst, the Raiders are still averaging just 18.9 points per game. Against the Chargers, Aidan O’Connell broke out with 248 passing yards and four touchdowns, and Zamir White ran for 69 yards and a score. Davante Adams led all receivers with 101 yards and a TD on eight receptions.
Arrowhead Stadium hasn’t been kind to the Raiders, though, even when things are going well coming into the game. They have a seven-game losing streak in Kansas City in games coming after a win at home. On the road, they have lost the first half in six straight games. If you see the Raiders even covering here, you see their defense figuring out how to make Patrick Mahomes beat them with short throws and the running game.
Why should you put your money on the Chiefs?
Since the bye, the Chiefs have been struggling, going 2-3 with wins coming over the Raiders in Las Vegas and the Patriots. For the season, the offense has scored 22.8 points per game, but Mahomes’ 15 interceptions haven’t helped. To be fair, several of those have bounced off the hands of wide receivers, but the turnovers are still there. Against New England, the Patriots were keeping things close early in the third quarter, but the Chiefs broke out with 13 straight points and ended up winning, 27-17. Mahomes threw for 305 yards and two touchdown passes, but he also had a pair of interceptions. Rashee Rice was the top receiver with nine catches for 91 yards and a score. The running game remains a concern, though, as the top tailback, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, only managed 37 yards.
The Chiefs have a six-game winning streak against the spread in home games against the Raiders in December. Now that the Raiders are a dome team, these bad-weather games (whether in the rain or cold) may become more difficult for them to win. The chiefs have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine games against Vegas at Arrowhead, and they have won the first quarter in 14 of their last 15 AFC West games in December.
| Chiefs vs Raiders NFL Week 12 Odds | SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | +10 | +380 | U 40.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -10 | -500 | O 40.5 |
Final Score and Prediction
Sunday’s weather forecast for Arrowhead Stadium is unseasonably warm – a high of 59, but with a 75% chance of rain and 85% humidity. A steady rain could make the passing game unwieldy and prioritize the ground game. The Raiders are still flying high after ending a three-game skid with a 63-21 demolition of the Chargers a week ago Thursday, as they will visit the Chiefs with three extra days of rest. Do we really think Kadarius Toney’s hands will be on point on a rainy day after all of the drops he’s had? I think the Chiefs can eke this win out, but not by double figures. I predict a final score of Kansas City 23, Las Vegas 20.
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