In the NFL, the schedule is designed to produce parity of outcomes over time. Teams who do well in a particular season face a more difficult schedule the next, while teams who struggle find an easier slate the next season. This practice, in addition to a draft that awards earlier picks to teams with worse records, leads to a system in which there is not that much competitive difference between the bottom-feeders and the elite teams. Every now and then, a team can catch lightning in a bottle and defy expectations and advance to the conference championship and beyond.
Let’s look at some teams that have beaten long sports betting odds and advanced to the conference championship – and even further.
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2003 Carolina Panthers
The 2001 Panthers had had the worst record in the NFL, but two years later they were in the Super Bowl. They became just the second team to improve that quickly, along with the 1981 San Francisco 49ers. The 2002 Panthers posted a 7-9 record, showing improvement in John Fox’s first season as head coach. The 2003 season brought an 11-5 record behind quarterback Jake Delhomme, wide receivers Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad, and tailback Stephen Davis. They found the New England Patriots waiting for them – and the teams put up a combined 29 points in the fourth quarter. The Pats got the last three points (and the win) when Adam Vinatieri split the uprights at the end of regulation for the win.
2001 New England Patriots
Yes, there was a time in the past when the Patriots weren’t a dynasty. However, Tom Brady and several crucial players from the Pats’ 1996 team that went to Super Bowl XXXI combined to upset the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship, and they followed that up with an upset of Kurt Warner and the “Greatest Show on Turf” offense at work in Los Angeles. Brady guided the Pats on a late drive that ended in (you guessed it) a game-winning field goal from Vinatieri.
1981 San Francisco 49ers
Bill Walsh guided the 49ers to a 6-10 record in 1980 and a 1-2 record to start 1981, but then the 49ers figured things out and went 12-1 the rest of the way thanks to Ronnie Lott and the rest of the 49ers’ secondary. The season is commemorated by the image of Dwight Clark leaping over the Dallas secondary to catch the game-winning touchdown over the Dallas secondary. After that, the 49ers went on to become the team of the 80s.
1999 St. Louis Rams
The Rams rode backup quarterback Kurt Warner, who had formerly plied his trade in arena football, to a 13-3 record after Trent Green went down for the year in the preseason. The team also had Pro Bowl tailback Marshall Faulk and rookie receiver Torry Holt.
2021 Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals accomplished the same feat as the 1981 49ers and the 2003 Panthers – going from the league’s worst record to the Super Bowl just two years later. It helped that they got the top draft pick and used it on LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, who recovered from an ACL tear his rookie season and guided the Bengals to the AFC Championship against Kansas City. The Chiefs built an 18-point lead in that game, but the Bengals roared back to win in overtime.
What about 2023? The Detroit Lions are really the only dark horse candidate left in the conference championships. It’s been 32 years since they appeared in an NFC Championship, and it’s been 66 years since they won an NFL Championship. Can Jared Goff keep this run going in San Francisco? His passer rating drops significantly on the road, but the 49ers looked shaky in their divisional round win over Green Bay, and the team might not have Deebo Samuel (shoulder) in the game. Without him, they lost two games in the regular season.
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