Four divisional round games this past weekend produced a rout (as Baltimore dismantled Houston in the second half) and three nail-biters. Late interceptions from Green Bay’s Jordan Love and Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield doomed two bids at road upsets as the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions survived to move on to the NFC Championship. Meanwhile, the Ravens wait for the Kansas City Chiefs, who advanced to their sixth straight AFC Championship in a late comeback that also depended on Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass continuing the sad legacy of “Wide Right” that dates back three decades in key playoff moments. Let’s look at the NFL Conference Championship betting odds for each of the four remaining teams to win the Super Bowl on February 11.
NFL Conference Championship Teams with the Best Chances to Win Super Bowl LVIII
The Baltimore Ravens were the only team in the divisional round to find a new gear in the second half and pull away from the opposition. They were tied with Houston, 10-10, at the half, but by the midpoint of the fourth quarter, the game had turned into a laugher. The Ravens’ offense struggled against a blitz-heavy attack from Houston in the first half, but going to two-tight end sets helped with protection and turned the game into a bruising ground attack, wearing down the Houston defenders. While the Texans crossed midfield three times in the first half, they only scored a field goal out of it, and their only touchdown on the day came on a kickoff return. Oh, and this Ravens team went to San Francisco and beat the 49ers by 20.
| Super Bowl 58 Odds |
|---|
| San Francisco 49ers +145 |
| Baltimore Ravens +190 |
| Kansas City Chiefs +400 |
| Detroit Lions +700 |
The San Francisco 49ers barely escaped the 7-seed Green Bay Packers in the divisional round, and things looked grim indeed when the Packers went up in the third quarter. The rainy night made it hard for Brock Purdy to grip the ball, but he was able to lead a successful comeback drive, turning Kyle Shanahan’s 0-30 record in games in which his team has trailed by at least a touchdown in the third quarter into a 1-30 record. It took a late interception by Dre Greenlaw to end the Packers’ hopes, making the 49ers look like a very shaky favorite. If the 49ers’ defense looks this porous against Detroit – and if Deebo Samuel can’t play – the 49ers could easily end up watching this Super Bowl on television.
The Detroit Lions haven’t been this close to a title in 32 years, when they lost to a terrific Washington team that would win the Super Bowl. The Lions aren’t a miracle team that is playing out of their heads – they posted a 6-3 record that includes a big win at Arrowhead to start the season and a loss that we can place squarely on the officials in Dallas. The defense gets key stops, and Jared Goff has risen above the noise from the critics. If you saw how vulnerable the 49ers looked against Green Bay, then you have to like the Lions’ chances to impose their iron will one more time…if not two.
The Kansas City Chiefs absolutely refuse to go down. The defense was missing starters on all three levels in the fourth quarter in Buffalo, but they still got a pair of huge stops, limiting the Bills to a 44-yard field goal attempt in the last 15 minutes. The Chiefs’ defense was on the field for 41 plays in the first half (while the offense only ran 21), but they never ran out of gas. It helped that Josh Allen went 0-for-4 in pass attempts that traveled at least 20 yards through the air (with three of those ending in drops), while Patrick Mahomes went 3-for-3 in those attempts. Can the defense shut down Lamar Jackson?
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NFL Conference Championship Odds: Favorites Teams to Win
Conference Championship: It’s official in Houston: C.J. Stroud will be the starting quarterback in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens. Coach DeMeco Ryans made the announcement after the Texans stopped the New Orleans Saints, 17-13, in their preseason finale. The Texans were the last NFL team to name their starting quarterback, who started all three preseason games and went 11 of 18 for 89 yards overall, with one touchdown pass and one interception in eight total series. Bryce Young (Carolina) and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis) will also start Week 1 at quarterback despite being rookies. As the regular season approaches, let’s look at each team’s NFL betting odds to win their conference and advance to the Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions despite having one of the youngest defenses in the league last year. They didn’t add much veteran depth in the off-season, and they lost JuJu Smith-Schuster in the off-season. Their wide receiving depth has decreased coming into 2023. Travis Kelce should still be clutch, but there’s not as much speed in the receiving group to make defenses respect the sidelines.
The Philadelphia Eagles have their key contributors back and have upgraded at tailback. However, they did lose their offensive and defensive coordinators – the first time in 29 years that a team went to the Super Bowl and then lost both coordinators. On defense, the Eagles have some potential issues at safety and linebacker. Even so, the Eagles have the players and the head coach to keep them atop the NFC East.
The San Francisco 49ers are about to learn whether Brock Purdy is the real deal. He took the 49ers on an historic run until he blew the UCL in his throwing arm early in the NFC Championship. The defense remains the best in the league, and Kyle Shanahan is still a play-calling genius. So if Purdy can elevate his game, the 49ers should be able to win the NFC West and make a deep postseason run. If the league figures Purdy out, things could get more difficult.
The New York Jets are an interesting value pick to win the AFC right now. With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Jets are a lot more likely to get past the Bills and the Dolphins in AFC East play. The biggest questions have to do with pass protection and Rodgers’ calf injury, which has become a recurring situation. The Jets’ defense has a terrific front seven and upgraded the secondary. With Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall carrying the ball, the Jets will have a balanced offense that could take them a long way.
The Dallas Cowboys added Stephon Gilmore and Mazi Smith on defense, plugging two holes and potentially positioning themselves as the top defense in the NFC. Dak Prescott did lead the NFL with 15 interceptions (in just a dozen games), but for his career, his interception rate is the ninth lowest in the history of the league. Mike McCarthy has taken over the play-calling duties; Cowboys fans hope that this will not add to the problems he has already shown in the area of clock management.
Odds to Win Conference Championship
AFC Championship
| AFC Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +320 |
| Buffalo Bills | +450 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +520 |
| New York Jets | +900 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +940 |
| Miami Dolphins | +1100 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1175 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1325 |
| Cleveland Browns | +1800 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +2600 |
| Denver Broncos | +2600 |
| New England Patriots | +3500 |
| Tennessee Titans | +3900 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +4300 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +5800 |
| Houston Texans | +9000 |
| AFC Lines to Win | |
NFC Championship
| NFC Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | +285 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +360 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +590 |
| Detroit Lions | +890 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1325 |
| New Orleans Saints | +1400 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +1475 |
| New York Giants | +2200 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +2300 |
| Green Bay Packers | +2400 |
| Chicago Bears | +2600 |
| Washington Commanders | +3100 |
| Carolina Panthers | +3200 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +3500 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +4500 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +10000 |
| NFC Lines to Win | |
