The Detroit Lions are making history this weekend by showing up in a conference championship for the first time in 32 years. It’s a long way from the history they made in 2008, when they became the first NFL team to go through an entire 16-game schedule without a win, going 0-16. They were knocked out of playoff contention in Week 11. They used five different quarterbacks and allowed the third-most points, the second-most rushing touchdowns and the fourth-most total touchdowns in NFL history. The tight end on that team was Dan Campbell – who is now the coach that has taken them from a 3-13-1 record in 2021 to the verge of the franchise’s first appearance in a Super Bowl. The Lions are underdogs in their NFC Championship game in San Francisco, which prompts the question: How should we handle the NFL betting this weekend when we consider the favorites? Read on to get our perspective.
NFL Conference Championship Savvy Picks Looking at the Favorites
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
When: Sunday, January 28, 3:00 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
NFL Odds: Chiefs (+4) vs Ravens (O/U 44.5)
This line opened at Baltimore -3.5 but has edged slightly upward since then. Two of the best quarterbacks in the league square off in Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs got to the AFC Championship by stopping Miami on a night when the temperatures approached zero at Arrowhead and then by going to Buffalo and beating the Bills by three in Mahomes’ first road playoff game. The Chiefs haven’t seen the Ravens since Week 2 of the 2021 campaign, when the Ravens won, 36-35.
The Ravens are a deserving favorite, not just because the game is in Baltimore. The Ravens are on fire right now; going back to their 23-7 win at Jacksonville on December 17, Baltimore has a four-game streak of winning games by at least 14 points, if you take out the Week 18 loss to Pittsburgh in which the Ravens rested Lamar Jackson and almost all of the other skill starters. They went to San Francisco and won by 14, came home and absolutely undressed Miami, 56-19. Their key players got two weeks of rest and then came out and turned a 10-10 start against Houston into a 34-10 laugher in the second half – and this was a Texans team that had routed Cleveland the week before. The Ravens are still under the radar a bit, perhaps because of choking in the postseason in the past, but they deserve to be the favorite.
Does this mean that the Ravens will win, though? Lamar Jackson is still healthy and playing at MVP level. He has Zay Flowers and OBJ running routes for him. He has at least one outstanding tailback in Gus Edwards, and maybe two, depending on how well Justice Hill shows out. The linebackers and secondary in Baltimore are elite, which will help in damage control if the offense coughs the ball up. I’m not betting heavy on this game because I know better than to put down a lot of money against Mahomes, but the smart pick is Baltimore to win and cover.
Bet on the Chiefs vs Ravens in the NFL Conference Championship to Win Today
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
When: Sunday, January 28, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: FOX
NFL Odds: Lions (+7) vs 49ers (O/U 51.5)
The Lions are a strong road team this season, going 6-3 straight up and 7-2 against the spread away from Ford Field. Teams that play in domed stadiums tend to collapse in these winter playoff games because of the cold weather, but this road trip takes them to the Bay Area, where the game conditions should be clear and in the 60s, which isn’t that different from what you would find inside.
The 49ers are heavy favorites for a number of reasons. The first is the dreadful Detroit secondary. They will give up chunk plays, and even though Brock Purdy is not the most mobile quarterback out there, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle will find openings down the field. Purdy struggled with accuracy last week, as the rainy conditions made for a slippery ball. This time around, the weather forecast is much more pass-friendly. The Lions do have a stout run defense, but the 49ers have one of the best tailbacks in football right now, in Christian McCaffrey. He gashed the Green Bay Packers for two emphatic touchdowns last week after getting bottled up on a number of carries. Then there’s the 49ers’ pass rush, which will get after Jared Goff and hurry him. Goff’s numbers dip significantly on the road, and he’s not a mobile quarterback.
But can the 49ers cover a seven-point spread? They were third in scoring defense this season, allowing just 17.5 points per game, but they allowed 23 against the Packers, and Green Bay was storming down the field, threatening to tie, before Jordan Love threw that backbreaking interception. They did post 48 sacks on the year, and Jared Goff is less agile in the pocket than Jordan Love was last week. I see this game coming down to the last possession, which would make a seven-point win less likely. Lions to cover.
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