When Bill Belichick first entered the NFL head coaching market, the smart sports betting money seemed to be on him getting a job in a matter of days. However, the Atlanta Falcons, who seemed like the most enthusiastic suitors, just passed on Belichick to bring in Raheem Morris, who had been the defensive coordinator for the L.A. Rams. Before heading to Hollywood, though, Morris had been the Falcons’ interim head coach for 11 games during the 2020 season after the firing of Dan Quinn. The Falcons posted a 4-7 record in those 11 games, and the team went with Arthur Smith. Morris has a Super Bowl ring from his time with the Rams, and this is his second head coaching gig. In Tampa Bay, he guided the Bucs to a 17-31 record over three seasons between 2009 and 2011.
As we look at the Conference Championships betting this weekend, though, we have picked some winners that we think are even more certain than Belichick getting a plum head coaching gig.
2024 Conference Championship Sure Betting Winners and Losers
Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at Baltimore Ravens (O/U 44.5) (3:00 pm ET, CBS)
Detroit Lions (+7.5) at San Francisco 49ers (O/U 51.5) (6:30 pm ET, FOX)
Game Schedule
Sunday, January 28th, 2024
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 79.5 receiving yards (NFC Championship)
The Detroit Lions have one of the worst passing defenses in the league. In the divisional round, Mike Evans picked up 147 receiving yards for the Buccaneers. That made five straight games in which Detroit permitted 140 or more yards to one opposing receiver. Brandon Aiyuk bailed out Brock Purdy time and time again in the divisional round; the chronic rain hindered Purdy’s grip on the ball, but Aiyuk kept finding ways to haul in less-than-perfect tosses and turn them into first downs.
Travis Kelce UNDER 5.5 receptions (AFC Championship)
Kelce had five catches against Buffalo in the divisional round. Those five catches turned into several key first downs and a couple of touchdowns. Given the fact that Buffalo had multiple injuries in their linebacker and secondary groups, Kelce should have been able to run wild. Now, the Chiefs take on an elite, healthy linebacker and secondary group in the Baltimore defense. Kelce’s speed has dropped a bit this season, so getting that separation has been more of a problem. He also isn’t on the field every down like he used to be, which means fewer opportunities to find holes in the zone defense.
Kansas City and Baltimore to go OVER 44.5 points
It’s worth noting that these two teams have bruising defenses who can mount furious pass rushes and deliver solid coverage in the secondary. The Ravens’ defense has better metrics than does the Chiefs’ unit, but both teams have stood tall on defense. The Chiefs held the Bills to a single field goal attempt in the fourth quarter, and Tyler Bass pushed that wide right. However, we have two mobile quarterbacks who can extend plays and find open receivers down the field, and both teams have elite running and receiving options. I see this game coming down to a key turnover, but for the most part, I expect both teams to mount multiple scoring drives.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 4.5 rushing attempts (AFC Championship)
Baltimore can get after the quarterback, which means the Chiefs’ pocket will be collapsing at multiple points on Sunday. Mahomes is elite at getting outside containment and scooting for key first downs, and the Ravens’ scheme does not include a quarterback spy. If the Ravens’ coverage can blanket the Chiefs’ receivers, that combination of coverage and pressure will push Mahomes to pull the ball down and take off.
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2020 NFL Conference Championship Betting Guide
Previous Betting News
Four teams remain in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy, given to the winner of the Super Bowl at the end of the NFL playoffs. In the NFC, the top two seeds have advanced to the conference championship, with the Green Bay Packers heading west to take on the San Francisco 49ers. In the AFC, the Tennessee Titans have turned the bracket on its head, as Ryan Tannehill became the first quarterback making a postseason debut ever to win a playoff game against the New England Patriots, doing it at Gillette Stadium, no less. The next week, he took his team to Baltimore and, with the help of tailback Derrick Henry and a stout defense, shut down the 14-2 Baltimore Ravens, becoming the first six-seed to make a conference championship in ten years as they head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. We’ve covered each of these games in prior articles but as you plan your NFL betting for the weekend, here is the schedule and our latest thoughts about the two 2020 NFL Conference Championship matchups.
2020 NFL Conference Championship Betting Guide
Sunday, January 19
- Tennessee (+7.5) at Kansas City (O/U 52.5) (3:05 pm ET, CBS)
- Green Bay (+7.5) at San Francisco (O/U 45.5) (6:40 pm ET, FOX)
Tennessee beat Kansas City at home in the regular season, holding off the Chiefs, 35-32. However, there were some factors at work that, for Chiefs fans, will hopefully not show up again. There were numerous penalties as well as mistakes on special teams, and the Chiefs committed costly turnovers. If the Chiefs don’t shoot themselves in the foot once again, they should be able to manage this game.
Also, Patrick Mahomes II had just returned from an injury to his kneecap. His rust was evident, and he had to throw the ball 50 times, misfiring on more of those than he normally would. Back at full health and with plenty of confidence, he should be able to lead the Chiefs past the Titans.
How did Houston get out to that 24-point lead? The Chiefs allowed a punt block for a touchdown, and they muffed another punt to give the Texans a short field. The Chiefs have to fix these problems if they want to beat Tennessee this time around.
Tennessee might be an even scarier six-seed than the last two teams that made it all the way to the conference championship from that seed (Green Bay and the Jets in 2010). Why? Derrick Henry. He has run for 1,917 yards in the regular season and playoffs. Of those yards, according to Next Gen Stats, he has picked 729 of those yards with at least eight defenders in the box. The next highest number? That would be 329, gained with eight in the box by New England’s Sony Michel. Michel has 90 attempts in the box; Henry has 135. He also has 13 rushing touchdowns with eight men in the box. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per run — when the box is loaded. So the Chiefs, who have a hard time stopping the run, could have their hands full again. A Titans cover would not surprise me at all.
The San Francisco 49ers walloped the Green Bay Packers, 37-8, back in November. The Packers had not scored that low a point total in any game in which Aaron Rodgers played two quarters since 2015. Rodgers went 20 for 33 for 104 yards, just 3.2 yards per attempt, the lowest in his career. Of those 104 yards, 63 came after the catch, showing us that his throws were quick and short. He took five sacks for 38 yards. Green Bay went 1 for 15 on third down, and that one came in garbage time, the next-to-last play of the game.
However, the 49ers were only up 13 at the two-minute warning of the first half before getting ten points to close out the half. However, if Rodgers’ bomb to Davante Adams had been a catch (or at least pass interference, which could have been called, or if he had found Adams on a similar pass later in the second quarter, then things might have been much different. Rodgers also hit Jimmy Graham with a 40-yard pass, only to have the ball punched out by a defender before it could be ruled a catch. The Packers’ offense has improved — but so has the 49ers’ defense, as they showed in holding the Vikings to just ten points. I still see the 49ers covering, but it won’t be the rout that we saw in the regular season.
