Now that we’re down to the final four in the NFL playoffs, the favorites should start sorting things out and take care of business. However, that’s not always how it works. Consider the then-Oakland Raiders after the 1980 season. Tom Flores was coaching the team after the John Madden era, and the Raiders had needed a wild card to get into the postseason after the then-San Diego Chargers had won the AFC West. The Raiders beat Houston in the wild-card game and knocked off the Browns in Cleveland to face the Chargers for a third time that season in San Diego. Despite being a four-point road underdog, the Raiders rolled out to a 28-7 lead in the first half and fended off a fierce comeback to win, 34-27. They then beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XV, 27-10, to become the first wild-card team to win a Super Bowl. Going into this week’s NFL Conference Championship, let’s discuss whether picking either underdog to pull off the upset makes sense.
2024 NFL Conference Championship Upset Picks
Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
When: Sunday, January 28, 3:00 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
The Ravens and Chiefs have met four times with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes starting at quarterback. The Chiefs have won three of those four games, and Jackson has completed just 56.2% of his passes in those games, with four touchdown passes and two interceptions. It’s worth noting, though, that Jackson is playing the best football since his MVP season, and he showed this yet again against the Texans last week. The Chiefs will have to contain Jackson with linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill after Chris Jones disrupts the pocket. Can the Ravens mix things up in the running game and get Justice Hill and Gus Edwards cooking? That will keep the Chiefs from fixating on Jackson. Also, can L’Jarius Sneed keep Zay Flowers from burning the secondary? For Jackson to stretch the Chiefs’ defense, he will need to connect with Flowers and OBJ a few times.
Mahomes has feasted on the Ravens in the previous four meetings, averaging 370 passing yards per game and throwing a dozen touchdown passes against just a pair of picks while completing 71.8% of his passes. We’d been wondering about Mahomes’ connection with Travis Kelce, but is back, so expect him to keep linebackers Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith busy. Isiah Pacheco is a brutal runner on opposing defenses, and Rashee Rice seems to be taking over Tyreek Hill’s mantle in the receiving group. Kansas City has turned the ball over once in each of the last two games, including a bad fumble by Mecole Hardman that went through the end zone, turning a touchdown drive into a turnover and a touchback. Both defenses did a great job holding opponents under 24 points this season, but Mahomes has made a career so far of getting things done when he has a solid O-line in front of him, and the line he has right now is terrific. So is the defense. Chiefs to cover.
Bet on the Chiefs vs Ravens in the NFL Conference Championship to Win Today
Detroit Lions (+7) at San Francisco 49ers
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
When: Sunday, January 28, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: FOX
This line opened at 9 ½ points, and its hasty contraction shows how little faith the sports betting world has in the 49ers. Yes, they beat Green Bay by eight in the divisional round, but the Packers were driving down the field near the end of the fourth quarter before Jordan Love threw an unwise pass back across his body, and the 49ers intercepted it. There’s also the health of Deebo Samuel, who has reinjured his shoulder. The last time that happened, in the Week 6 loss to Cleveland, he had to miss the next two games – and the 49ers lost those also. When the 49ers beat Detroit last year, Samuel caught nine balls for 189 yards and a score. Missing that production would be significant. Look for Brock Purdy to look for George Kittle in the middle of the field – and look for the Lions to try and generate a pass rush off the edge. Purdy has only been sacked eight times in the last seven games, but Aidan Hutchinson has three sacks for the Lions in two games. He will need to beat tackle Colton McKivitz, who has permitted nine sacks this year, on a consistent basis.
The Lions’ offense has been prolific in the playoffs, starting with Jared Goff, who has thrown for 564 yards in two playoff games, with three touchdown passes. Going on the road will be a challenge, as Goff’s passer rating is only 89.4 away from Ford Field, and Chase Young and Nick Bosa will be coming after him in the pocket. Expect the Lions to get the ball out quickly with Amon-Ra St. Brown on the sidelines and Sam LaPorta over the middle. Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 11.4 yards per touch in these playoffs. Can he keep that up against San Francisco? I liked the Lions to cover when the line was more than a touchdown, but now that it’s dropped to seven, I’m not so sure.
Bet on the Lions vs 49ers in the NFL Conference Championship to Win Today
Odds to Win the Super Bowl 58 Before the NFL Championship Games
| Team Odds | |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers +150 | Baltimore Ravens +180 |
| Kansas City Chiefs +375 | Detroit Lions +800 |
| Bet Super Bowl Lines | |
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2022/23 NFL Conference Championship Upset Picks
NFL Conference Championship Upset Picks
Is it possible for the conference championship round of this year’s NFL playoffs to live up to the excitement of the divisional round? Last week, all four games went down to the very last play, with three game-winning field goals and an overtime touchdown. Three road teams picked up upset victories, and now we have conference championships featuring Cincinnati traveling to Kansas City, where the Chiefs are looking to avenge a Week 17 loss that saw the Bengals come back from a 14-0 deficit to win, 34-31, and San Francisco traveling to Los Angeles to face a Rams team that they have beaten twice already this season, including a Week 18 win at SoFi Stadium. From a NFL betting perspective, does picking an upset in either case make sense? Let’s take a closer look.
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 30 | 3:00 pm ET, CBS
This makes four straight AFC Championships at Arrowhead Stadium, with each coming against a different opponent. The Chiefs survived a shootout with Buffalo last week, driving almost 45 yards in 13 seconds to kick a last-second field goal, and then driving for an easy touchdown to start overtime as both defenses were simply out of gas. Joe Burrow has been transcendent in his last five starts, and the rushing help he gets from Joe Mixon has made a huge difference in terms of balance. With Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, Burrow has three elite targets.
The problem for Cincinnati has been protecting Burrow. He took 51 sacks in the regular season – and took nine in the divisional win over Tennessee. He became the first quarterback ever to win a playoff game in which he took eight or more sacks. Mixon also had a tough time getting going against the Tennessee run defense. However, Kansas City’s front seven is not as tough as the Titans’, and the secondary took some injuries against Buffalo. If the Bills had won the toss, they would have driven down the field in overtime and scored just as easily.
Cincinnati stops the run well, as we saw them slow down Derrick Henry (although Henry was clearly not running at 100% after a foot injury ended his regular season in Week 8). The pass coverage can be iffy, as they like to use zone coverage to stop big plays but are likely to blitz. Patrick Mahomes knows how to get the ball out quickly and can evade the rush. The Bengals do have the advantage of an extra day of rest, as they played on Saturday while the Chiefs played Sunday night. With a seven-point spread, I’m still leaning toward the Bengals to cover, although a last-second Chiefs escape is still how I see this game ending.
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) at L.A. Rams
Sunday, January 30 | 6:30 pm ET, FOX
San Francisco swept the Rams this year in the regular season, winning 31-10 at home in Week 10 and erasing a 17-0 deficit to win, 27-24, in overtime in Week 18 to make the postseason. This shouldn’t be a surprise by now, though, as the 49ers have beaten the Rams six times in a row, sweeping the season series for the last three years.
The 49ers come in with a solid running game behind Elijah Mitchell, with Deebo Samuel also getting carries. When Jimmy Garoppolo manages ball security well, he can hit some deep shots and also throw shorter passes that find receivers in open territory to run after the catch. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle join Samuel as tough targets to cover and bring down. The 49ers haven’t really had as many problems with the Rams’ pass rush as other teams have.
When the Rams have the ball, look for them to throw the ball down the field – and look for the 49ers to pressure Matt Stafford. Nick Bosa and Arik Armistead bring pressure off the edge. However, the connection between Stafford and Cooper Kupp has been electric all season long. The worry I have about the Rams is their mental toughness under adversity. They had a 27-3 lead over Tampa Bay and then started turning the ball over and saw the Bucs tie the game at 27. It took a boneheaded slot blitz by the Bucs to turn Cooper Kupp loose and lead to the Rams’ game-winning field goal. So for now, give me the 49ers to cover – which means I’m picking upsets against the spread in both games.
