Was the Dallas Cowboys trade for Trey Lance worth it? The quarterback who was once seen as the future of the San Francisco 49ers is now on the third string on the Dallas depth chart.
He showed accuracy issues in the Cowboys’ preseason opener against the Rams on Sunday, indicating that he has a long way to go if he is going to become a legit backup, let alone a franchise quarterback.
In the 13-12 loss, the Cowboys showed a lot of softness in the middle of their defense, and their secondary had some breakdowns as well, but they benefited from a lack of accuracy from the Rams’ third-stringer, Stetson Bennett IV.
NFL Betting Analysis: Top Regular Season Games for the Dallas Cowboys
As we look to the 2024 regular season, involving the Cowboys in your sports betting may be an even riskier proposition than it has been in years past. Take a look at some of the top games on their regular season schedule.
at Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5
One of the storied interconference rivalries in the NFL gets renewed this year as the Cowboys head to Pittsburgh.
The Steelers always have a disciplined defense, and bringing in Russell Wilson at quarterback could add stability to their offense.
Wilson’s performance may indicate age catching up or declining abilities, based on last seasons with Seattle and Denver.
If the Cowboys lose this one on the road, it’s time to start worrying, as the Cowboys have a lot of tough games on the slate after this one.
^Week 6: vs Detroit Lions
The Lions will come into AT&T Stadium looking for revenge after the late-season controversial loss that they suffered on this field last year.
It looked like the Lions had driven down the field and scored the go-ahead touchdown on a trick play after an offensive lineman had apparently reported as an eligible receiver, only for the referee not to notice.
The Lions may have gotten too cute, though, as they sent two linemen near the referee, but only one reported, and the referee mistook which lineman was reporting.
Either way, the Lions will be ready to leave no doubt at the end of the game this time. But is Jared Goff ready to put together another strong season?
^at San Francisco 49ers Week 8
In 2023, the 49ers dominated the Cowboys, highlighting the gap between Dallas and top NFL teams. The impact of new coordinator Mike Zimmer on the Dallas defense remains to be seen.
McCaffrey returns from a calf strain for San Francisco. The Cowboys have a chance for a major upset in primetime at Levi’s Stadium. It’s a rivalry game dating back to the 1980s and 1990s.
^Week 10 vs Philadelphia Eagles / Week 17 at Philadelphia Eagles
For one reason or another, the Cowboys haven’t lost at home to the Eagles since 2017.
The Eagles’ Week 18 loss was due to scheduling in a meaningless game, injuries to Jalen Hurts, and strong performance by the Cowboys, impacting postseason positioning.
The gap between the Eagles and Cowboys is as wide as it has been in several years now, though, so I see that home winning streak for Dallas in this series coming to an end.
^gettin' Odig-y with it! happy bday @Osagoeshard 🥳 #DallasCowboys | @Invisalign pic.twitter.com/vKHTVlMcQt
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) August 13, 2024
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Dallas Cowboys Odds, July 30, 2024
Remember when Dallas Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones told us how he was “all-in” for 2024?
Since then, the team has spent the off-season signing retreads to fill key positions (such as Royce Freeman and Ezekiel Elliott at tailback) and waiting for other teams to set the market at wide receiver and quarterback.
The team has not extended CeeDee Lamb, who is holding out, while letting Dak Prescott enter free agency after his contract year. Other teams in division and conference are getting stronger.
Within the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles added a legit tailback in Saquon Barkley, and the Washington Commanders have drafted a new quarterback in Jayden Daniels.
As we go approach the 2024 NFL regular season, let’s look at some NFL betting props connected to America’s Team.
NFL Futures Odds, Season Betting Props: Dallas Cowboys 2024
- Super Bowl Winner Odds: +1825
- Odds to Win the NFC: +750
- NFC East Odds to Win: +151
- Regular Season Wins: Over 10.5 wins +145 / Under 10.5 wins -179
Which of these season props make the most sense?
The Dallas Cowboys did win the NFC East last year, but they absolutely backed into it.
The Philadelphia Eagles started 10-1 but finished 11-6; the Cowboys finished 12-5, including a win over the Eagles.
However, they also beat the Detroit Lions in a game marred by a controversial finish, as mistakes by the game officials cost the Lions the touchdown that would have won the game.
The Cowboys showed their truer colors in the playoffs, getting buried by the Green Bay Packers, who only managed a 9-8 season, at home in the first round.
So wagering on Dallas to finish second in the division makes more sense. They have to play a first-place schedule this season, and they haven’t come close to keeping up with the Eagles in off-season acquisitions.
Also, the Eagles added two new coordinators, and Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts has gotten rave reviews for his new commitment to leadership in the off-season.
The Washington Commanders and the New York Giants are still in rebuilding mode, so second place makes sense here.
How about that over/under total? The Cowboys play the AFC North, the NFC South, the other two NFC division winners (San Francisco and Detroit), and Houston.
Even if you think the Cowboys can go 5-1 in the division, they could easily go 1-3 against the AFC North, go 0-3 against San Francisco, Houston and Detroit, and then 3-1 against the NFC South.
That’s only nine wins. So the under makes a lot more sense than the over (which is why it comes with a lot less value).
What about props around CeeDee Lamb?
The Cowboys absolutely will pay Lamb for the simple reason that they need his production. Last year, he set franchise records with catches (135) and receiving yards (1,749).
Both of those numbers were in the top ten in NFL history. He also found the end zone in the last nine regular-season games of 2023, a stretch in which Dallas went 7-2.
His rookie deal would pay him $18 million before he hits free agency in 2025, but an extension might pay him that in a signing bonus alone.
Jerry Jones learned his lesson when Emmitt Smith famously missed two games of the 1993 season before getting the biggest contract for any tailback in NFL history.
Jones paid Ezekiel Elliott when he held out of training camp in 2019, he paid guard Zack Martin in 2023 handsomely when Martin missed practices in the summer to get a new contract, and he will pay Lamb.
So if you’re thinking of fading Lamb because he might not be on the field, he will be out there, and now that value is going up on him because of the holdout, you can profit on futures props.
Props to Consider for Regular Season
- Odds on CeeDee Lamb to lead the league in receiving yards: +650
- CeeDee Lamb Odds to lead the league in receiving TDs: +900
Even without another elite receiver on the other side of the formation, Lamb has shown that he can get open, both on short routes and routes down the field.
He can pick up yards after contact. Dak Prescott has shown he can get him the ball consistently.
The issues that the Cowboys have deal more with defensive consistency, line play, and running the ball than with the passing game, so expect Lamb to get his numbers.
The Cowboys do get a lot of receiving touchdowns from their tight ends, so the receiving yards prop makes more sense than the touchdowns prop at this point.
Offensive Props
- Odds on CeeDee Lamb to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year: +900
Despite Lamb’s production during his four seasons in the NFL, he’s never come out higher than third place in voting for this award.
Wide receivers have won in three of the last five seasons, but since 1994, it’s gone to a tailback or a quarterback every other season.
Tailback Christian McCaffrey won last year thanks to his league-high 2,023 total yards and 21 touchdowns.
When you have a dual-threat tailback, you have more opportunities to get touches, and it’s hard for wide receivers to compete.
So even if Lamb sets another franchise record for a wide receiver, that win is an uphill battle.
Also, even though the award is based on regular-season performance, until the Cowboys show that they are ready to compete with and beat elite teams, it will be harder for them to win balloted awards.
Other Betting considerations
The Cowboys have gone 33-18 against the spread over the last three seasons, covering 65% of the time.
As a team, they are a profitable team to follow. They covered thanks to a high-octane offense and a defense that causes chaos.
In good times, that means chaos through the pass rush; in bad times, it means breakdowns in the interior that allow other teams to run the ball at will and in the secondary that allow other teams to torch the defense.
Mike Zimmer is the new defensive coordinator, installing a 4-3 base. Over the last three seasons, Dallas Cowboys has snatched 93 takeaways.
Offensive, Deffensive
However, when they don’t get takeaways, they have a hard time getting stops. DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons are still there to key an outstanding pass rush, which allows cornerbacks to jump routes.
However, no team let other teams have more success per handoff in the running game than Dallas did last year.
The offense put up huge numbers last year, but the running game has become subpar, and the pass protection is now mediocre.
In the team’s 17 games last year, 11 came against teams ranked 21st or lower in defensive DVOA.
They averaged 30 points per game, but having higher quality opposition and lower quality skill players on offense, they won’t do that again.
One interesting look down the road is Week 13, when the Cowboys host the Giants on Thanksgiving Day as eight-point favorites.
That will be the Cowboys’ third game in 10 days – they see Houston on Monday night in Week 11, go to Washington for Week 12 and then come back to play the Giants three days later.
Thanksgiving Day hasn’t been kind to the Cowboys, who are just 2-11 against the spread on that holiday game over the last 13 years.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Giants cover in a sloppy game there.
Divisional Season
When it comes to divisional home games, the Cowboys are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread over the last three seasons.
They went 3-0 straight up and against the spread last year, although the Thanksgiving game was close until late in the third quarter, when the Cowboys went on a tear to get the rout.
This year, the Cowboys’ divisional home games include Philadelphia in Week 10 (-2), the Giants in Week 13 (-8) and the Commanders in Week 18 (-5.5).
The Commanders beat Dallas in Week 18 two years ago up in Washington, and that outcome will really depend on where the Cowboys are in Week 18.
If they have the division, or a playoff berth, wrapped up, they will likely rest a lot of starters and could end up losing a meaningless game.
If Dallas hasn’t wrapped either up, will they have the mental fortitude to beat a Washington team that will be playing with house money?
This isn’t a team that historically finishes well. So while I like them to cover at home against the Eagles, I’d look at the Giants and Commanders to cover the other two.
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