In the wild card round of the NFL playoffs, we went 5-1 against the spread, as all of our covers came through except our prediction that Pittsburgh would hang within 12 ½ points of Kansas City. We got some help from Mike McCarthy’s penchant for poor decision-making and overall inability to teach team discipline, as Dallas set a playoff record with 14 penalties and followed up a quality fake punt with a ridiculous attempt that not only failed to make San Francisco panic and call a timeout but also cost Dallas five yards for delay of game, and that was just part of the comedy of errors that led to the Cowboys’ latest playoff embarrassment. How will we do this week?
Let’s look at our upset picks for the divisional round as you plan your online NFL betting for the weekend.
NFL News: Divisional Playoff Round Upset Picks
Buffalo Bills (+1.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
The over/under for this game currently sits at 54 points, two points below the two team’s combined scoring average for the season (56.6). To me, taking the “over” is even a better pick than the upset, because I see this game turning into a track meet. Josh Allen is putting up yards at an historic rate, and he might be the most consistent quarterback in terms of posing a real threat in the running game while also remaining a dangerous passer. Patrick Mahomes is an even more dangerous passer, but he is somewhat less likely to take off with the ball than is Allen.
So why do I like the Bills to upset the Chiefs? There’s the motivational factor, to start with. The Bills lost to Kansas City on this same field in the AFC Championship, so even though Buffalo won here earlier in the regular season, the same level of motivation remains. After Buffalo lost at home to New England in the regular season, we saw the Bills amp up their performance on both sides of the ball, and they steamrolled the Patriots in historic fashion in the wild card round of the playoffs.
The Chiefs have a better defense than the Patriots do, at least against the pass, and the Chiefs also have a more effective offense, so their defense won’t fatigue as quickly as the Patriots’ unit did against Buffalo. Even so, there’s a reason this line started at Kansas City -2 ½ and has dropped a full point since then: the Bills’ defense has as good a chance as any unit in the league at slowing down the Chiefs, and while the Chiefs can get their defense cooking, they will struggle against a team that can both pound the ball on the ground and slice and dice through the air. So, of the four divisional round games, this is the likeliest to turn into an upset.
L.A. Rams (+2.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There’s a lot to like about this upset pick. Matthew Stafford looked terrific in the Rams’ demolition of the Arizona Cardinals in the wild card round last week, throwing two touchdown passes without an interception. Cam Akers and Sony Michel put together a monster night carrying the ball in a win that was also helped by the Cardinals’ utter inexperience on the postseason stage. The team that started 7-0 and finished 11-7 showed, once again, that Kliff Kingsbury is not yet ready for the adjustments that are necessary to succeed in the second half of an NFL season.
Tampa Bay, though, has plenty of playoff savvy. They have a quarterback who has won a stack of titles and who has put up another year’s worth of MVP-level numbers, despite having a revolving door at wide receiver. I’m not sure Stafford is ready to win a quarterback duel at this level, and so I’m not ready to put money down on this upset as I am on the Bills’ win.
Divisional Playoff Round: Bet the Game Today
NFL Betting Odds
Love betting NFL football? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date NFL lines
Check out XBet’s NFL Calendar: Dates, Scores, Tips, Previews, and Predictions
