Let’s face it – everyone loves an underdog. Maybe the best example of this in the history of the NFL has been Joe Namath, who guaranteed victory for the New York Jets in Super Bowl III – and delivered. Despite mediocre numbers that season (and in that game) as well as for the balance of his career, that one championship propelled him into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Other heroes have emerged for underdogs – in 1987, for example, Minnesota wideout Anthony Carter had an unbelievable 227 receiving yards as the Vikings upset San Francisco, 36-24, despite entering as 10 ½-point underdogs. Then there’s the “Helmet Catch” – the last reception in David Tyree’s career. That 32-yard grab ended up as one of the key plays in the Giants’ upset win over New England in Super Bowl XLII – and the Giants were 12 ½-point underdogs against a Patriots team that just needed the win to complete an unbeaten season. Upsets covered in four of the six games in Super Wild Card weekend, but should you go with underdogs in the divisional round? We will discuss this and other topics as you ponder your NFL Playoffs betting decisions for this week’s playoff games.
NFL News: Divisional Round Betting Advice
→ Does the spread matter?
In 2021, underdogs went 137-133-2 against the spread, which is a winning percentage of 50.7%. However, with the built-in vig, you won’t profit that way. A bettor who had put down $110 on each underdog last year would have ended up losing $930.
What about straight up betting? The underdogs won 97 of those 272 games straight up – a winning percentage of 36%. However, a bettor who would have taken the moneyline for every underdog with a $100 bet would have walked away with a $2,055 profit.
In 39 games, the favorite won straight up, but the underdog ended up covering the spread. There were also two pushes and one tie. So the spread mattered only 39 times in 272 games, or in 14.3% of games. So if you do like the underdog in a game, you should put money down on the underdog on the moneyline. If you’re a little more risk averse, you can split things up – $25 on the moneyline and $75 on the spread in games where you like the underdog, or maybe a 50-50 split.
What if you like the favorite? Then don’t worry about laying the points. Especially in the playoffs, you don’t expect to see favorites that are covering take their feet off the gas. Yes (for example), Tampa Bay got a late touchdown against Dallas, but that made the final margin of victory 17 instead of 25. Dallas was a 1- or 2-point favorite, depending on the book that you chose. If the game is within a score or two, expect the favorite to expend maximum effort until the end.
→ How reliable are the Chiefs?
Kansas City leads the NFL in points scored – but ranks just 16th in points permitted. No team has given up more passing touchdowns than they have. However, their three losses came by no more than four points, and they led during the fourth quarter in all three games. In one game, they fell behind halfway through the fourth, and in the other two, they surrendered the game-winning scores in the last minute of the game. In 2018, the Chiefs were also tops in scoring but outside the top 10 in scoring defense, and they fell at home to New England in the AFC Championship as the Patriots converted three 3rd-and-10 situations in the fourth quarter and overtime to take the win. Does this mean the Jaguars will pull off the upset this week? I don’t think so – but I do like the Jags to cover.
→ Are the New York Giants for real?
The team either lost or let go their top four wide receivers in the preseason. As a result, the Giants had the sixth-fewest passing yards and passing touchdowns. The defense was dead last in interceptions (6) and 31st in yards permitted per carry (5.2). The offense has had two bright spots: Daniel Jones (who has finally overcome the turnover bug) and Saquon Barkley, who has returned from two seasons lost to injury to run at an elite level.
However, they lost to Philadelphia, 48-22, in Week 14. They did look tough against a Minnesota team that had come into that game 12-0 in games decided by no more than seven points. For the Giants to deliver against that group took solid execution. The Giants face a Philadelphia team that has gotten rest during the bye week and has most of their key starters healthy. The Eagles are 7-1 in one-score games. The Giants certainly could rise up and take advantage of the Philadephia run defense and harass Jalen Hurts into mistakes. We saw Washington do this earlier this season. However, I see the Eagles pulling away here.
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