If you think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do not have what it takes to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV, then you must have a vastly different view of the game from what the sports betting community has in mind. The Chiefs were 3 ½-point favorites when the betting opened, and that has since slid down a half-point to make the Chiefs three-point favorites. One of the great Super Bowl quarterback duels of all time is set for this Sunday, with Tom Brady, set for his tenth Super Bowl appearance, facing Patrick Mahomes, already in his second Super Bowl at the age of 25.
If you haven’t made your NFL betting choice yet, listen to some reasons why Tampa Bay could pull off the upset.
NFL News: Does Tampa Bay Have What It Takes to Win the Super Bowl?
Carlton Davis will have a much better first quarter this time around
Carlton Davis is the Tampa Bay defensive back who got torched by Tyreek Hill in the first quarter of the Chiefs-Bucs game in late November. Hill caught three touchdown passes and had 269 receiving yards — more than 200 in the first quarter — and Davis was the one guarding Hill on all three touchdowns and for nine of his 13 receptions. It is likely that the Buccaneers will show Hill different defenders — and that Davis will be much better prepared this time around.
Leonard Fournette has rebounded as a power back
In this postseason, Fournette has accounted for 313 all-purpose yards and scored three touchdowns in three games. It is true that Kansas City limited the Buffalo running backs to just 32 yards on nine attempts in the AFC Championship, but Devin Singletary is not the same kind of grinder as Fournette. I see him extending drives not just with carries but with catches out of the backfield, foiling Kansas City’s attempts to load that box.
The Chiefs’ offensive line is in trouble
Patrick Mahomes already had to deal with the absence of All-Pro right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, out with a back injury. His Pro Bowl left tackle, Eric Fisher, tore an Achilles tendon in the AFC Championship. So both ends of the O-line will be staffed with such backups as Martinas Rankin, Andrew Wylie and Mike Remmers. They will have to deal with Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett, who combined to sack Aaron Rodgers five times in the NFC Championship. The Bucs sacked Patrick Mahomes twice when they met in November — when Kansas City’s line was healthy all the way across.
The Buccaneers do need to keep an eye out in the return game
The only team that scored touchdowns on both kickoff and punt returns during the 2020 regular season was Kansas City. Tampa Bay permitted the seventh most yards per punt return in the NFL (10.3) during the regular season. No team kicked off to produce more touchbacks than Tampa Bay, but when they didn’t get a touchback, they allowed more yards per return (33.6) than any other team when the opponents brought the kicks back. It might just take one big return to turn a close game into a laugher.
Chris Godwin could be the X-factor
Godwin went without a touchdown catch in the teams’ November meeting, but he did lead Tampa Bay with eight catches in the game. The only wide receiver with more targets than Godwin in this postseason is Stefon Diggs, of Buffalo. Godwin has Mike Evans out there with him, along with Scotty Miller; if the Chiefs key too hard on Godwin, one of the other two (and don’t forget about Rob Gronkowski) could have a huge game.
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