It is hard to imagine a wilder Week 17 than what we saw at the end of the 2020 NFL regular season. The Cleveland Browns seemed to have the table set for them to beat Pittsburgh in their finale with Steeler quarterback Ben Roethlisberger on the bench, starting Mason Rudolph instead. Rudolph didn’t turtle, though, throwing for over 300 yards as the Browns barely held on for a 24-22 win. In the Sunday night game, Philadelphia had a chance to knock off Washington and send the New York Giants to the playoffs, but Eagles coach Doug Pederson pulled quarterback Jalen Hurts in the fourth quarter, despite the fact that Hurts was not injured and that the Eagles were trailing by just a field goal. The decision brought scorn from the New York Giants, as well as NBC broadcasters Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth.
Now, the wild card schedule has been set, so let’s take a look at the early NFL betting odds for the Saturday matchups.
NFL News: Early Wild Card Odds: January 9
#7 Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) at #2 Buffalo Bills (O/U 52) (1:05 pm ET, CBS)
Once Buffalo beat Miami in Week 17, all Indianapolis had to do was beat Jacksonville in their season finale, and they would make the playoffs. The Jaguars had beaten Indianapolis, all the way back in Week 1, but the Jaguars had lost 15 in a row since then. Indianapolis almost won the AFC South, but the Titans got a field goal that bounced in off the right upright to beat Houston, 41-38. The Colts got solid seasons from rookie tailback Jonathan Taylor and cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who had a great comeback year. The team really doesn’t have a standout strength or weakness; Philip Rivers has placed serviceably, although the collapse of the offense in Week 16 against Pittsburgh did not bode well for their playoff fortunes.
Buffalo rolled over Miami, 56-26, in Week 17, and this could be the best Bills squad since Jim Kelly, Andre Reed and Thurman Thomas took the team to four straight Super Bowls. Buffalo has the best first-down passing game in the NFL, as Josh Allen completed 72.1 percent of his passes to start a series. However, no playoff team, other than Tennessee, has allowed more running plays of 20+ yards going into Week 17; the Bills had permitted 11. Even so, I like Buffalo to win and cover.
#6 L.A. Rams (+3.5) at #3 Seattle Seahawks (42.5) (4:40 pm ET, FOX)
The Seahawks clinched the NFC West, only to have the Rams come to town? The Rams and the Seahawks split their meetings in 2020, each winning at home. In both games, the Rams’ defense was able to slow down Russell Wilson; in Week 16, Rams quarterback Jared Goff dislocated his thumb and needed surgery. He missed Week 17, but the Rams beat the Arizona Cardinals anyway. Thankfully, the Rams had the NFC East on their schedule this year, and that sweep got them into the postseason. The Rams’ defense, led by Darious Williams and Jalen Ramsey, was tops in the NFL at stopping deep passes. On attempts of at least 15 yards through the air, they permitted only 723 yards, leading the league according to Sports Info Solution.
Seattle has the third-best quarterback in the league under pressure, with an 89.7 passer efficiency rating. However, their pass defense, which was worst overall for much of the season, finished the year 31st against passes across the middle and 27th against short passes. They don’t like to play nickel coverage once, and they like to safety blitz a lot. This means that the linebackers often end up with tough coverage. But will the Rams have Goff back? And if the game comes down to a late field goal, will the Rams be able to get a clutch kick out of Matt Gay? Seattle to win and cover.
#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) at #4 Washington Football Team (46.5) (8:15 pm ET, NBC)
Yes, the Washington Football Team prevailed against Philadelphia to win the NFC East, but they got help from the Eagles when Nate Sudfeld came in to play the fourth quarter. Washington’s defense is terrific, with Chase Young leading a stout defensive front, but the offense is pedestrian at best. Along with Montez Sweat, Young made life for opposing quarterbacks perilous, but the offense will not have enough to win here.
Tom Brady comes in with 40 touchdown pases for the Buccaneers, and his receivers also drew 20 pass interference penalties in the first 16 weeks, tops in the league. Alex Smith, in contrast, averaged 5.0 Intended Air Yards per throw, according to Next Gen Stats, which was dead last in the league. The second-last was Jimmy Garoppolo, which was 6.2 yards. An upset here is certainly possible (remember, Washington won at Pittsburgh), but unlikely. Tampa Bay to win and cover.
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