It’s never a surprise when Super Bowls turn into matchups between elite quarterbacks. After all, without a game-changing signal-caller, it is difficult to make it more than a round or two into the playoffs. Last year was no exception, as Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady dueled, although the matchup was not a battle of swiftly moving offenses as the Buccaneers’ pass rush snuffed out the Chiefs’ offense. This year, we have second-year quarterback Joe Burrow, winner of a national championship at LSU, and veteran Matthew Stafford, who toiled for years with Detroit before bringing his talents to Los Angeles this season. Both quarterbacks have high ceilings, so as you plan your NFL betting for the Super Bowl, let’s look at how this position matchup breaks down.
NFL News: Evaluating the Super Bowl QB Matchup
Throwing Deep Routes
Stafford has a cannon for an arm, but Burrow has been able to find Ja’Marr Chase on a number of deep routes. PFF has Stafford scored at 94.5 on passes thrown a minimum of 20 yards down the field (ranked #7 among the 39 qualifying NFL quarterbacks) and Burrow scored at 94.4 (#9). Stafford led the league in yards per attempt (18.9), while Burrow came in sixth at 15.3. So if Stafford has time in the pocket, he is more likely than Burrow to burn the opposition with a bomb.
Throwing from a Clean Pocket
Obviously, every quarterback would prefer to throw without pressure, and without having to move around. Burrow led the NFL in PFF grade when throwing from a clean pocket, when throwing from a standard dropback in the pocket, when throwing on first or second down, and when throwing without a play-action move. Stafford ranked between sixth and ninth in all of those metrics. What does this mean? If the Rams cannot generate pressure on Burrow, this could be a really long day for Los Angeles.
Extending the Play
When Burrow and Stafford have had to scramble this year, here are the numbers:
Burrow: 13 of 27, 228 yards (8.4 yards per attempt), 6 TD, 0 INT
Stafford: 6 of 20, 68 yards (3.4 yards per attempt), 2 TD, 1 INT
What about en the two quarterbacks decided to take off and run? Burrow had 25 carries for 140 yards and two touchdowns. Stafford ran 14 times for 87 yards without finding the end zone. When scrambling, Burrow’s PFF passing grade was 83.9 (6th overall), while Stafford’s was 52.3 (28th). So if you are wondering which quarterback is more intimidating after leaving the pocket, the answer would be Burrow – but it’s not like he is a wizard with his feet.
Facing Two-High Looks on Defense
Both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen showed that defenses putting two safeties high can limit quarterback effectiveness. The Bengals and the Rams both use two-high looks about a third of the time. Burrow has a QB rating of 95.4 against a two-high look, with 8.1 yards per attempt, and an adjusted completion rate of 82.5%. Stafford has a 77.5% adjusted completion rate in this situation – good for 33rd in the NFL, behind such names as Sam Darnold and Cam Newton.
Protecting the Football
Stafford had a 3.5% turnover-worthy play rate, which ranked 23rd among 35 qualifying quarterbacks. Burrow posted a 2.4% rate, sixth best. Burrow did throw an interception in the AFC Championship, and the Chiefs dropped another possible pick. Stafford had a fumble against Tampa Bay (the team had four in the narrow win) but only has one interception in this postseason. Can Stafford do a better job of avoiding turnovers under the extremely bright lights of a Super Bowl?
Super Bowl LVI – Cincinnati Bengals vs L.A. Rams : Bet the Game Today
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