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Falcons vs Buccaneers Expert Analysis & Betting Odds for Week 5 Thursday Night Football

Falcons vs Buccaneers Expert Analysis & Betting Odds for Week 5 Thursday Night Football

Written by on October 2, 2024

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NFL Game Odds: Falcons vs Buccaneers TNF | With Week 5, the 2024 NFL regular season has its first bye week.

The Lions, Titans, Eagles, and L.A. Chargers will have their opportunity to recuperate from injuries. For some teams (like the Eagles, who seem to be stumbling a bit), the bye seems timed just right.

For others (like the Lions, who seem to have found their stride after their big win over Seattle on Monday), the timing might seem early.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons play in prime time to start off Week 5, as Mercedes-Benz Stadium will host the latest iteration of this NFC South rivalry.

Baker Mayfield has led the Buccaneers to a 3-1 start, putting them a game ahead of the 2–2 Falcons.

Mayfield has thrown for 984 yards so far, which ranks fourth in the league. He has eight touchdown passes against just two interceptions and ranks fourth in quarterback rating at 106.9.

His rise in Tampa Bay has already taken him to the divisional playoffs, where he had previously peaked in Cleveland, and now he finds himself in a very competitive division.

The Falcons also have an outstanding talent at quarterback in Kirk Cousins; one commonality that Cousins and Mayfield share is that neither one seems to have reached his ceiling.

Let’s take a closer look at this Thursday night clash as you set out your sports betting for the rest of the week.

 

NFL Game Odds: Buccaneers vs Falcons TNF in Week 5 | NFL 2024/25 Season

When: Thursday, October 3, 2024, 8:15 pm ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Opening NFL Game Odds Subject to Change: Atlanta -1.5 / O/U 43.5 // Tampa Bay +103 / Atlanta -126

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TNF Why should you bet on the Buccaneers?

If you thought that the Philadelphia Eagles would head down to Tampa Bay and erase the memories of their embarrassing wild-card playoff loss from last winter, think again. The sunny climate down in Florida clearly wore out the Eagles as they fell apart in a 33-16 shellacking.

The Buccaneer pass rush sacked Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts six times, and Baker Mayfield accounted for three touchdowns, throwing for 347 yards and a pair of scores.

Baker Mayfield

Mayfield went 30 of 47 on the day without a pick, and the offense found the end zone on its first possession of the game for the first time in the last 21 games. Mike Evans took the career scoring lead in Tampa Bay franchise history, scoring on a two-yard catch to end that drive.

The Buccaneers did not let up after that, out gaining Philadelphia 254 yards to zero and putting together a 24-0 lead.

Tampa Bay actually ran 22 plays in Philadelphia territory before the Eagles made it across the 50-yard line with the ball. The Eagles did start the second half with a touchdown drive keyed by a 59-yard run from Saquon Barkley, and they also blocked a Tampa Bay extra point and took it to the house for a defensive two-point conversion to make the score 30-16.

However, that drive ended in Tampa Bay territory when Lavonte David had a strip-sack of Jalen Hurts, giving the Buccaneers the ball back. The Buccaneers are now 4-1 all-time against Jalen Hurts. Can they bring the same energy against the Falcons?

If you like the Buccaneers in this game, you see their pass rush forcing Kirk Cousins into multiple poor decisions, and you see Tampa Bay taking advantage of the turnovers that result.

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TNF Why should you put your money on the Falcons?

The Falcons looked like they were headed to a tough 24-23 home loss in Week 4 against New Orleans. However, a late pass interference penalty moved the ball far enough ahead to let Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo line up for a 58-yard field goal attempt.

He nailed it to set a career mark, giving him four field goals on the day. It was the eighth time Koo has made a game-winning kick in the last 10 seconds of regulation since the start of the 2021 season, more than any other NFL kicker in that span.

The Stats

The Falcons actually won the game with four field goals, a special teams touchdown and a defensive touchdown as the offense failed to find the end zone. The Saints’ Rashid Shaheed muffed a fair catch at his own two-yard line, only for the ball to clank off his shoulder pads into the end zone, and KhaDarel Hodge jumped on it for a Falcons touchdown. Troy Andersen took a tipped pass back to the house for the Falcons to deliver a pick-six.

Why did the Falcons have such a hard time scoring? The Saints have a physical and opportunistic defense. We saw this especially in Week 2, when they basically shut down the Dallas Cowboys’ offense, a week after Dallas had routed the Cleveland Browns on the road.

That defense showed up again this week, so the Falcons had to find other ways to score.

Kirk Cousins did have one interception on the day, but most of the solid work that New Orleans did on defense had to do with keeping the Falcons from turning long drives into touchdowns. Against Tampa Bay, the Falcons should have more room to run the ball, and Cousins should find more openings down the field, as the Bucs don’t have the dominant defense that the Saints do.

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Falcons vs Buccaneers TNF Final Score and Prediction

Through four weeks, Tampa Bay is 3-1, both straight up and against the spread. Atlanta is 2-2 straight up but 1-3 against the spread. Falcons tailback Bijan Robinson has picked up 224 yards on 55 carries and 135 yards on 15 catches.

Buccaneers tailback Bucky Irving has 35 carries for 203 yards and a score. Tampa Bay is 4-1 straight up in their last five trips to Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

As far as injuries are concerned, Tampa Bay has safety Antoine Winfield Jr, wide receiver Jalen McMillan, defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, and offensive tackle Luke Goedeke all listed as questionable for the game, all for undisclosed ailments.

Injuries

For Atlanta, linebacker Toy Andersen (knee), tailback Bijan Robinson (hamstring) and offensive tackle Caleb McGary (undisclosed) are all listed as questionable.

Both defenses in this game have a bend-but-don’t-break philosophy to this point, so I see a lot of shorter drives leading to field goals rather three-and-out possessions.

I think Tampa Bay is getting more consistent play out of its quarterback, and Mayfield has slightly better talent running routes and catching passes for him. Mayfield also has slightly more of a clutch reputation than cousins does.

It’s true that Atlanta has an opportunistic defense, but some simple luck on special teams bailed them out against the Saints, and things like that don’t typically happen every week. I predict Tampa Bay to come in and deliver a 30-27 victory.

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