The NFC and the AFC have split the last four Super Bowls, but the AFC won the three before that. Of course, the juggernaut known as the New England Patriots no longer has both Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but the Patriots and Brady’s new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are contenders for the title this time around.
Let’s take a look at some of the NFC top teams — and some reasons why you can expect this season’s champs to come from this conference.
NFL News: Five Reasons the NFC Will Win Super Bowl LVI
Tampa Bay doesn’t have to rely on Tom Brady to Repeat
To be sure, the Bucs are miles ahead of where they would be if Jameis Winston were still leading the offense. Their talent at wide receiver was ridiculously high when Winston was here, but Winston’s penchant for throwing interceptions at the wrong time meant that the Bucs couldn’t get by New Orleans in the NFC South and couldn’t win enough tough games even to make the postseason.
However, those receivers, led by the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, would still be putting up numbers for other quarterbacks. Tailback Leonard Fournette, who put the team on his back and carried them to a win against Indianapolis last week, would still be pounding the ball. The pass rush would still be elite, and the running defense would be shutting down opponents. The Bucs would still be getting gashed in the passing game, but there are still a ton of pieces of a contender here. Tom Brady is the icing on the cake, which gives him the freedom to make a mistake or two a game and still win. He didn’t have that leeway anymore in New England.
Green Bay might even be better than Tampa Bay
Even with a fractured pinky toe, Aaron Rodgers can still drop passes right in his targets’ laps. The real story is the defense, which shuts down opponents in the running game and (usually) has the pass rush and coverage to slow down opposing quarterbacks. Tailbacks Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon bring both speed and physicality, softening up opposing defenses for the passing game. If the Packers end up getting to host the NFC Championship again, it’s hard to see them falling to Tampa Bay a second time, and the Packers have a mental toughness — and a lucky streak — that none of the AFC contenders seem to have this year.
Who’s going to stop the Arizona Cardinals when Kyler Murray returns?
The Cardinals come out of their bye and possibly get Kyler Murray back at quarterback against Chicago. Murray has a cannon arm and fast legs, probably the best two-way threat of any quarterback in the league right now. He has DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk running routes, Zach Ertz at tight end, and a stout running game. The Cardinals have a grinding, aggressive defense. I don’t see any AFC team stopping the Cardinal offense in a Super Bowl matchup.
All the AFC contenders have bad losses
Buffalo? They lost to Jacksonville. Tennessee? They lost to the Jets. And the Texans — at home. The Patriots are coming on strong, led by an aggressive defense, but an NFC team that can stop the run will deal with the Patriots’ offense. Kansas City? They weren’t even in the discussion for the AFC West lead until a couple of weeks ago, and their pass defense is still extremely porous.
Defensive coordinators figured out how to stop Patrick Mahomes
Drop seven or eight defenders into coverage, and keep your safeties back instead of blitzing. Then, let your pass rushers get to work, because the Chiefs’ O-line still isn’t elite by any means. Mahomes will make poor decisions. In the Chiefs’ recent streak, he has been more willing to check down and let the offense pick up yards gradually, but at least two or three of the top coordinators in the NFC will figure out how to gum up their drives.
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