In a normal season, we would be entering Media Week ahead of the Super Bowl, with both of the teams in town, going through workouts and interviews, and the international media is on site in the host city, holding forth about the most watched sporting event in the world. The sports betting line has already been set for a week at this point, with a week left to go before the game. This year, of course, things are different. There is no Media Week, and the Kansas City Chiefs will not head to Tampa Bay until later this week due to COVID-19 concerns. The point spread, which started at Kansas City -3.5, has only shifted a half-point, to Kansas City -3. The point total started at 57.5 and has slid to 56.5.
Should you get your bet in now or wait until the last minute? Check out our NFL betting thoughts.
NFL News: Get Your Super Bowl Bet In Early. Is It a Good Idea?
In a typical year, you should get your bets in as soon as you recognize that the point spread and/or point total represent a lack of balance that you think you can exploit. The point spread this time basically represents the game coming down to the last drive, and the Chiefs winning it in the fourth quarter with another Mahomes-led touchdown. Given the way the Chiefs have played the past two seasons, that is not an unreasonable way to envision the game going.
The early action so far has favored Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but we can also look back to the teams’ meeting in the regular season to get a sense of what might happen. Coming the Sunday after Thanksgiving, the Chiefs went down to Tampa and put up a 17-0 lead, running right over the Tampa Bay defense in the early going, and then had to hold on tight for a 27-24 win.
The work that Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill did, particularly in the first half, was what set the pace of the game. Mahomes threw for 462 yards, including touchdown passes of 75, 44 and 20 yards to Hill. Hill had 13 catches on the day for 269 yards. In the fourth quarter, Mahomes led two possession drives — neither of which led to Kansas City points — to keep the ball for over 10 of the game’s final 15 minutes. Brady threw for 345 yards and three touchdowns — but he also threw two interceptions. He threw three interceptions in the Bucs’ NFC Championship win against Green Bay. Brady did find Mike Evans for touchdowns of 31 and seven yards, but after scoring with 4:10 on the clock, Tampa Bay could not get the ball back.
What could make this week different? Tampa Bay is taking the ball away at a greater clip now than they were then. They are also playing with a lot more confidence now, having beaten Washington, New Orleans and then Green Bay, all on the road, to advance to what is another road game in Super Bowl LV.
In my mind, the shift from 3.5 to 3 points is not that significant, so the lack of balance in the line does not seem to be all that helpful for the sports bettor. There is one reason to wait though: COVID-19.
In normal years, I would suggest grabbing the side of the line you like, particularly if you think that the line will slide away from you. If you think the Chiefs are going to run away with the game, for example, seeing the line slide down only helps you with your wager here. However, if COVID-19 cases pop up in the middle of this week, that could play a major role in the teams’ fortunes. The virus has struck key starters all season long, with such quarterbacks as Lamar Jackson, Andy Dalton and the entire Broncos’ quarterback unit down at different times. The Cleveland Browns lost their entire wide receiving corps to contact tracing before their loss to the Jets in Week 16. I would wait and see how the testing goes, almost as late as you can, before locking in my wager this year.
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