When action first opened on the matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night, the line opened with Kansas City as 3 ½-point favorites and what would be a record point total of 57 ½. The previous record was 57, held by Super Bowl LI and Super Bowl XLIV. In Super Bowl LI, New England’s overtime win over Atlanta ended up going over the total, while Super Bowl XLIV, featuring the New Orleans Saints beating the Indianapolis Colts, ended up going under.
Let’s take a look at the odds as they stand now, and we’ll talk about the slight shift in the point total as well as points you should consider when taking either team to win the Super Bowl.
NFL News: Updated Odds to Win Super Bowl LV
Open: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5, O/U 57.5
Current: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5, O/U 56.5
Why would the point spread tick down a point?
There is momentum that comes from people considering football from the viewpoint of history. The fact that 57 ½ points was an historically high point total caused by the collision between two point totals, and some people will respond with a knee-jerk response by taking the “under.”
But is this realistic? Let’s consider the two offenses in question. Tampa Bay is averaging 35.7 points per game over their last six contests, including the 31 points they hung on Green Bay, on the road, in the NFC Championship. Kansas City has averaged about 25 points per game over the same stretch, but one of those games came with Patrick Mahomes on the bench as the Chargers won a meaningless game in Week 17, and another came with Mahomes missing much of the fourth quarter, knocked into the concussion protocol against Cleveland. So if you look at averages, the shift does not make a lot of sense.
In addition to the prolific scoring that both offenses offer, you can also make headway against both defenses. The Tampa Bay defense has turned into a turnover machine, but when they don’t take the ball away, they don’t get all that many stops. If Kansas City can protect the ball, they should be able to move the ball down the field, especially with a healthy Clyde Edwards-Helaire to give Mahomes some balance on the offensive side of the ball. The Chiefs’ defense was able to confuse Josh Allen with a variety of looks in the passing game, but that won’t work as well against a savvy veteran like Brady, and you could argue that Brady has even more weapons at his disposal than Allen did in the AFC Championship.
So, should you take the over? The Chiefs and Bills played to a 38-24 final a week ago — 62 points. The Bucs and Packers played to a 31-26 final — 57 points. The Packers’ head coach, Matt LaFleur, was taken to task for a late decision to go for a field goal, with the score 31-23, instead of letting Aaron Rodgers try for a touchdown on fourth and goal. That touchdown, had it happened, would have put their point total over. Both of those games were played in cold weather, which tends to limit offensive output, but that didn’t slow down any of the four units.
The way I see it, if the Bucs are going to win, this game will have to turn into a track meet. I don’t see Tom Brady getting shut down in a game of this magnitude, especially by a defense that has given up as many points as the Chiefs have this year. This is a game that will go back and forth until the last drive, with multiple touchdowns. So I’d take the “over” with more confidence than I would pick one team to win, at least for now.
NFL Betting Odds
Love betting NFL football? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date NFL lines
