A lot has changed since the dawn of the Super Bowl era. The average ticket price to get into Super Bowl I, back in 1967, was just $12. To get into Caesars Superdome for Super Bowl LIX cost an average of about $5,600. The price of admission to the first Super Bowl wouldn’t even have bought you a large beer at Super Bowl LIX – those cost $17. The Super Bowl Ultimate Nachos? $36. Now if you were willing to settle for a hot dog, that would have just cost $8. Other items (a bowl of jambalaya, an alligator sausage po’boy, and the like) would have set you back $18. Cocktails ranged between $24 for a margarita to $40 for the Blackberry Lemonade (Crown Royal Blackberry with lemonade and a fresh garnish of blackberries, and then even $59 for the Voodoo Magic. Between now and next year, the Super Bowl will only get more expensive. We don’t know who will play in that game, but we do know that sports betting is already underway as there are opening odds for next year’s champions.
Let’s talk about the whipping that the Philadelphia Eagles gave the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX and then get into what we might see next February, when Super Bowl LX takes place at Levi’s Stadium in northern California, this includes the Super Bowl betting for the top teams.
NFL Betting: Way-too-Early Odds for Super Bowl LX
Recap of Super Bowl LIX
We don’t get many Super Bowls that are as uncompetitive as Super Bowl LIX was. The Philadelphia Eagles led the Kansas City Chiefs, 34-0, late in the third quarter. The Chiefs were able to scramble for some aesthetic points that led to the 40-22 final score, but this game was in the bag by halftime. The last time we had a game this unbalanced was Super Bowl LV, when the Chiefs got undressed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31-9. What the two games had in common was an absolute failure by the Chiefs’ O-line to give Patrick Mahomes time in the pocket or open up holes in the running game. While the Eagles have a great defense, and a great front seven, they’re not that much better than the Buffalo Bills’ unit, so many of the questions about this game have to do with the Chiefs’ mindset coming out of the tunnel, particularly on offense.
The Chiefs’ defense held Philadelphia’s best offensive weapon, tailback Saquon Barkley, in check for hte game. He ran the ball 25 times for only 57 yards. Philadelphia only converted three of 12 third downs and didn’t convert their fourth-down attempt. They even turned the ball over in the red zone.
The problems for the Chiefs’ offense, though, had to do with what Mahomes couldn’t do, thanks to a lack of protection. In the first half, he went just 6 of 14 for 33 yards and two interceptions, one of which went for a pick-six. That was his lowest yardage output in the first half of any NFL contest in his career. His 10.9 passer rating for the first half was the third worst by any quarterback in the NFL in the first half of any game for the season. He had a -1.36 EPA (expected points added) per dropback, the 10th worst by any NFL quarterback in the first half of any contest since the beginning of the 2018 season. Mahomes did get some garbage time production, but even then, his Total QBR was just 11.4, the second-worst number he has posted in 133 career starts.
How did the Eagles keep Mahomes from doing anything at all on offense? It wasn’t through the blitz. Mahomes dropped back to pass 42 times, and they didn’t blitz once. They still pressured Mahomes on almost 45% of his dropbacks through the first three quarters. They sacked him six times with just a four-man rush, the most Mahomes has ever taken from that kind of attack. They succeeded by walling off the edges in the pass rush and attacking Joe Thuney, who is really a guard forced into left tackle duty, and Mike Caliendo, the reserve left guard who was the weakest link on the Chiefs’ O-line. Mahomes couldn’t scramble away, and he couldn’t get set in the pocket. The result was a dreadful performance – he didn’t scrabble for a first down the whole game. The last time that happened in a playoff game was the 2018 AFC Championship – a loss to New England. So if you combine his poor play and the abandonment of the running game, then you see why the Chiefs simply couldn’t move the ball at all until it was far too late.
Why Bet So Early on the Next Super Bowl?
At this point, wagering on next year’s Super Bowl is more for fun than for anything else. In this case, will Andy Reid retire? Will Travis Kelce? Will Chris Jones? Will the Chiefs upgrade their O-line? What will the Buffalo Bills do so that they can finally get by Kansas City in the AFC bracket? We might ask the same question about the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals – and those are just the top contenders. On the NFC side of the bracket, the Eagles look like they’ll need a new OC next year as Kellen Moore looks headed to New Orleans to coach the Saints. They have a young core of skill players, but they’ll be challenged just in their own division by the Washington Commanders. The Detroit Lions were an elite team this year, but injuries on defense exposed them to the Washington offense in the divisional playoffs. Will the Minnesota Vikings keep Sam Darnold or turn the offense over to J.J. McCarthy? Will the Rams retool? Will Dallas ever develop a championship culture again?
These questions don’t even get into all of the intricacies of free agency that a lot of teams face. Some teams will bounce back from a tough loss and get right back to the business of winning – like the Chiefs did after getting routed in Super Bowl LV. Other teams will sink into a post-loss hangover. The Minnesota Vikings look like a possible candidate for a down year after getting routed in Detroit in Week 18 and then taking an ugly road loss in L.A. in the wild-card playoff round. So if you want to bet early, go ahead, but I wouldn’t bet a ton on this prop.
Breaking down the Top 5 Favorites
Kansas City Chiefs (+650)
It’s not like Kansas City has a trash roster – they made it to the Super Bowl again, and they have gone to the AFC Championship or Super Bowl in each of Patrick Mahomes’ seven years as the starting quarterback. When they haven’t made it to the Super Bowl, they’ve lost to the likes of Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. In the draft, they will have four picks over the first three rounds; they got Tennessee’s third-rounder by sending them cornerback L’Jarius Sneed last offseason. Because of a tight salary cap situation, their draft will have to be their free agent shopping as well, so they must draft well. They should get wide receiver Rashee Rice back from injury, giving them another young phenom at that position opposite Xavier Worthy, who had two great touchdown catches in the Super Bowl loss, but that O-line is definitely a priority.
Baltimore Ravens (+650)
The Ravens have two key free agents – left tackle Ronnie Stanley and left guard Patrick Mekari. However, the Ravens aren’t looking to lock up a lot of their salary cap there – they think that they can go younger at those positions and still find quality. They replaced the other three starters on their O-line in the last off-season and finished first in the NFL in offense last season. Derrick Henry will return for the second year of his deal, and he showed no signs of wear and tear this past season.
Philadelphia Eagles (+700)
It’s hard to imagine the Eagles matching their offseason domination from a year ago. They added tailback Saquon Barkley and linebacker Zack Baun through free agency, and they drafted cornerbacks Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. This off-season, the front office needs to decide whether to give Baun a big extension. Aas long as the Eagles can keep this quality nucleus together, though, they will have a window open for title contention.
Buffalo Bills (+700)
The Bills are so close to title contention. In his season-ending press conference, though, coach Sean McDermott said that winning teams need two or three “difference makers” on either side of the ball. The Bills definitely have that at quarterback (Josh Allen) and tailback (James Cook), but do they have that at wide receiver or tight end? On defense, they have Von Miller, but is he still a transcendent pass rusher? Do they have a shutdown cornerback? Those are all areas for the team to consider.
Detroit Lions (+700)
The Lions have a lot of change coming up. Both coordinators have moved on – OC Ben Johnson to Chicago and DC Aaron Glenn to the Jets. Other assistants have moved on as well – Johnson took the Lions’ wide receivers coach and assistant quarterbacks coach, and Glenn took the Lions’ passing game coordinator with him. So that means a lot of change in a fairly short amount of time. Can the Lions retool and contend again? Dan Campbell has put together one of the top cultures in the NFL, but you have to have the roster and the system in place as well.
What NFL Futures Can You Bet on in the Off-season?
Right now, the biggest prop on the board has to do with winning Super Bowl LX. A lot of the other props that will show up soon, such as win totals, division champions, and the like, will open once the schedules are published for the season. Right now, we know each team’s home and away opponents, but we don’t have game dates at the present time.
One interesting pick for Super Bowl LX champion is the Washington Commanders, currently available around +2000, depending on the book. This is a pretty good value, given the fact that the Commanders rolled to the NFC Championship. They edged by a solid Tampa Bay team in the wild-card round and then ran the Detroit Lions out of their own stadium in the divisional round. They took it on the chin from the Eagles in the NFC Championship, but those learned lessons on defense will come. They finished the regular season on a five-game winning streak that included a Week 18 win over Dallas with quarterback Jayden Daniels on the bench to rest. Once they figure out the defensive side of the ball – and head coach Dan Quinn is an expert on that end of things – they will be a real contender, and they could well figure that out sooner than later.
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Get Your Way Too Early Super Bowl LVI Odds
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Now that Tom Brady has his seventh Super Bowl ring and the fanfare of the NFL playoffs has faded, it is time to start thinking about next year’s season. Will the Kansas City Chiefs keep their offense together — and get the upgrades they need in their defensive front seven to contend? Will another year of seasoning elevate Josh Allen to the top quarterback in the AFC? Will the ageless Tom Brady still be elite at the age of 44? Let’s take a look at the early sports betting odds for Super Bowl LVI.
NFL News: Way Too Early Super Bowl LVI Odds
The Kansas City Chiefs drafted well next year, picking up tailback Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU — and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed in the fourth round. They also did well with some undrafted free agents, which helped them make it back to the title game. Losing to Tampa Bay in such brutal fashion — including Patrick Mahomes’ first failure ever to lead a touchdown drive in 54 professional starts — should make the Chiefs hungry once again.
The Buffalo Bills will have some difficulty making too many additions given the coming shrinkage in the NFL’s salary cap. However, many of their key players are still on rookie contracts for 2021, or they have been locked into contracts already, so as it stands, Buffalo is still the odds-on favorite to win the AFC East and will be better prepared for another confrontation with the Chiefs.
Can the Green Bay Packers make it past the NFC Championship this time? Head coach Matt LaFleur made changes at defensive coordinator and special teams coordinator; in the NFC Championship, the Packers would have done well with another solid offensive lineman or with a couple of additions to their secondary. The fact that LaFleur made some, shall we say, conservative calls at crucial times should turn into a lesson for the coming postseason.
It’s hard for Super Bowl winners to repeat, but the last quarterback to do it was Tom Brady, so Tampa Bay might make an interesting value bet. The Bucs were able to stitch together a championship team without a real off-season, despite integrating a new quarterback. This off-season gives them an opportunity to build even more team chemistry and start the season off strong.
The Los Angeles Rams made a huge gamble this off-season, shipping Jared Goff and two first-round picks, as well as a third-round pick, to Detroit for Matthew Stafford. This is Stafford’s chance to escape years of dysfunction in the Motor City, while the Lions get a serviceable starting quarterback and draft choices that could help them rebuild. Will Stafford make the Rams an elite team, or will his tendency to throw picks at the wrong time keep the Rams out of the Super Bowl?
The Cleveland Browns have a young core for success, as Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Denzel Ward and Myles Garrett are all under the age of 25. The defense still needs some retooling, and the offensive line could use more depth, but the Browns have finally gotten to the point where contending could be a reality.
The Seattle Seahawks have added a new offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron, and his first order of business will be to build chemistry with Russell Wilson. Safety Jamal Adams will be expensive to re-sign, but the Seahawks may try to trade him ahead of the draft if they can’t get a deal done.
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