We’re just a couple of days away from the wild card round of the NFL playoffs, as 12 of the 14 teams who are still in the hunt for the Super Bowl LVI title will play Saturday, Sunday or Monday for a shot at the divisional round. In each conference, three divisional champions will host three wild card qualifiers; in some cases, the matchups involve division rivals, meaning that teams are meeting for the third time in a season. How should you approach NFL betting in this scenario? We have some handicapping tips to help you out.
NFL News: Handicapping Tips for the Wild Card Round
Follow the Strength of Schedule
The NFL has a scheduling format designed to promote parity among the 32 teams. Each team plays 17 games: six against division foes (three at home and three away), four against teams from another division in the same conference, four against teams from a division in the other conference, two from other divisions in the same conference who finished in the same divisional place the prior season, and one from the other conference who had the same divisional place the prior season. It is these last three games that are designed to promote parity. So a team that did well the prior year and does well again has faced stronger opposition.
Strength of schedule also has to do with the divisions that a team has to play. If you are a strong team in the NFC East, like Dallas, you have six very winnable games in your division – but you don’t have much in terms of strength of schedule. If your assigned division as an NFC East team is the NFC South, that makes for an easier schedule, overall, than the NFC West would. If your assigned interconference division is the AFC West, that is a tougher slate than the AFC South or AFC East would have been this season. All of these factors play in.
Jeff Sagarin has developed just one of many rating systems for strength of schedule, and these systems have proven valuable in handicapping wild card games. Between 2002 and last off-season, wild card teams ranked higher on Sagarin’s strength of schedule rating won 47 of 72 matchups straight up and covered in 48 of those 72 games – no matter whether those teams were the home team or not. Teams that were ranked at least 10 points higher on the strength of schedule rating won 29 of 36 games straight up and covered in 28 of 36 games. Teams that went in as underdogs despite having a superior strength of schedule won 19 of 36 games straight up and covered 26 times in 36 opportunities.
In last year’s wild card round, we had the following matchups:
Indianapolis Colts (SOS 32) at Buffalo Bills (13)*
Closing Line: Buffalo -6.5
Final Score: Buffalo 27, Indianapolis 24
Winner: Buffalo SU / Indianapolis ATS
L.A. Rams (10) at Seattle Seahawks (23)
Closing Line: Seattle -4.5
Final Score: L.A. 30, Seattle 20
Winner: L.A. SU / ATS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9) at Washington Football Team (26)
Closing Line: Tampa Bay -8.5
Final Score: Tampa Bay 31, Washington 23
Winner: Tampa Bay SU / Washington ATS
Baltimore Ravens (28) at Tennessee Titans (29)
Closing Line: Tennessee -3.5
Final Score: Baltimore 20, Tennessee 13
Winner: Baltimore SU / ATS
Chicago Bears (22) at New Orleans Saints (14)
Closing Line: New Orleans -9.5
Final Score: New Orleans 21, Chicago 9
Winner: New Orleans SU / ATS
Cleveland Browns (31) at Pittsburgh Steelers (27)
Closing Line: Pittsburgh -4
Final Score: Cleveland 48, Pittsburgh 37
Winner: Cleveland SU / ATS
*a lower score indicates a superior strength of schedule
The team with the superior strength of schedule went 5-1 straight up but just 3-3 against the spread, as Washington covered by a half-point, Indianapolis covered by 3 ½ points, and Cleveland shocked everyone by taking a 28-0 lead after one quarter in Pittsburgh before rolling to a win. Underdogs went 3-3 against the spread in that week as well. So you see that using strength of schedule will bring you value as you go into this week’s exciting action. Good luck!
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