The Buffalo Bills had an ugly home loss to open the season against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since then, though, they have outscored their opponents by a combined 78-21 in Weeks Two and Three. That includes a 43-21 whipping of the Washington Football Team last Sunday. They prepare to welcome the 1-2 Houston Texans, who surprised the sports betting world with a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in their opener, but then they lost to Cleveland in Week Two (after building a 14-0 lead) and to Carolina last Thursday. They come to Buffalo with extra rest, but it remains to be seen if that will help. This point spread is immense — but it’s not the biggest in NFL history. That happened in 2013, when Denver was a 28-point favorite at home against Jacksonville.
What will go down in Buffalo? Check out NFL betting preview.
NFL Preview: Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, October 3)
When: Sunday, October 3, 2021, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV: CBS
Radio: KILT 610 AM Houston / WGR 550 AM Buffalo
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Buffalo -17 / O/U 47 // Houston +900 / Buffalo -1600
Why should you bet on the Texans?
Houston scored 37 points in their Week One win over Jacksonville and have scored 30 in their two games combined since then. However, Davis Mills did put up decent numbers in Week Three, his first start of the season. He went 19 of 28 for 168 yards and a score in the loss, but the running game was listless, picking up just 42 yards. Buffalo piled up 407 yards on Houston, and the Texans were not able to get any turnovers.
A 17-point spread is fairly large, given the parity in the NFL. If Buffalo comes out slowly, like they did against Pittsburgh, then Houston could stay close enough to secure the cover. Davis Mills could take another step forward this week and manage to lead the Texans on enough sustained drives to keep things relatively close and disrupt the rhythm of the Bills’ offense. Do you like Houston? Then you think the game will slow down to a grinding pace, with both teams struggling to finish sustained drives.
Why should you put your money on the Bills?
Ever since Tyrod Taylor went down early in the Texans’ Week Two game in Cleveland, the offense has been on life support, putting up just 16 points in just over six quarters. Rookie Davis Mills is doing his best running the offense, but he hasn’t had much success yet. Buffalo is fourth in the NFL in points permitted per game and in the top five in passing yards and rushing yards permitted. Those elite numbers point to a defense that should be able to keep Houston from doing much to put points on the board.
Josh Allen made his fantasy owners ecstatic in Week Three, accounting for five touchdowns (one on the ground and four through the air). After struggling in Week One, Allen looked confident and threw the ball accurately for the second game in a row. Houston doesn’t have much of a pass rush, and their secondary has a hard time managing coverage effectively. If Allen has time in the pocket, he will sit and pick the Houston defense apart.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Buffalo looks to be in mid-season form after that opening hiccup against PIttsburgh to start things off. Houston, on the other hand, seems to be sinking down into a morass that could realistically end with a 1-16 record. The point total seems a little high, given the potential for a shutout or a single-digit point total for the Texans. I predict a final of Buffalo 34, Houston 9 — although I feel better about the “under” than I do about that 17-point spread.
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