The first four weeks of the 2024 NFL regular season will tell us a lot about the Jacksonville Jaguars. They open with a real gauntlet: at Miami, Cleveland, at Buffalo, and at Houston. It’s entirely possible that they could start 0-4. Between October 13 and November 17, the Jaguars play two games in London (back to back) and see all of their NFC North competition, also visiting Philadelphia to boot. That’s a difficult slate for any team, and the Jaguars are still figuring out their identity on both sides of the ball. We have the NFL betting odds for the Jags to make the playoffs and win the division, conference and Super Bowl for you, as well as their current win total from the books. Read on to get our thoughts on their season prospects.
NFL Betting Analysis for Jacksonville Jaguars for the Next 2024 Season | NFL Odds
- Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX: +4500
- Odds to Win the AFC: +2500
- Odds to Win the AFC South: +285
- Make the Playoffs: +120
- Season Win Total: 8.5
Trevor Lawrence
As with most teams, the Jaguars’ top priority falls at the quarterback position. The team is working on negotiations with Trevor Lawrence for a contract extension. According to Pro Football Focus, Lawrence is the third-best NFL star under 25 years old, only behind Detroit Lions offensive tackle Penei Sewell and N.Y. Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. He has completed three seasons as the starter with 52 games under his belt, but he is still one of the youngest starting quarterbacks in the league.
Some might view Lawrence’s 2023 campaign as a bit of a step back, particularly when you compare it to expectations during the preseason. Even so, he got the highest Pro Football Focus grade of his young NFL career in 2023. Through 13 weeks, Lawrence had posted an 88.1 overall PFF grade, which was fifth-highest among NFL quarterbacks.
Injuries played a significant part in Lawrence’s decline in the last fourth of the season. He had four different injuries at different points of the season – a knee injury (Week 6), an ankle injury (Week 13), a concussion (Week 15), and a shoulder injury (Week 16) that kept him on the shelf for the next start, the first that he has missed in his career. These injuries contributed mightily to the Jags finishing the season 1-5 and missing the playoffs. His four starts coming after each injury were his second-, fifth-, seven,- and eighth-worst contests of 2023 when one evaluates they by total EPA. He threw for 4,016 yards, completing 65.6% of his passes and throwing for 21 touchdowns. He also turned the ball over seven more times with lost fumbles.
A healthy Lawrence is a piece of good news. Another piece of good news is the connection that Lawrence has built with rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr, whom they drafted in the first round. The Jags lost Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones to free agency, signing Gabe Davis from the Bills. Davis is a deep speed threat, so adding Thomas gives the Jaguars another weapon in terms of possession routes. According to NFL Media’s Gregg Rosenthal, the last time the Jaguars drafted a receiver with a ceiling as promising as Thomas’ was 2014 when they picked Allen Robinson.
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Christian Kirk
Another piece of good news for the offense is the return of Christian Kirk. He went down to injury last year but looks back at 100% as OTAs (optional team activities) get underway. Despite the conditions beting wet and rainy, he made several catches on deep balls, including a one-handed grab that would have made the SportsCenter Top 10 in a regular-season game.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Trades
The Jacksonville front office made a number of moves to help the team. Some look promising, but others are a bit questionable. Let’s start by looking at the head-scratchers:
Joey Slye will be the Jaguars’ new kicker. Last year, the team had brought in Brandon McManus to add stability at the position, but he only went 5 of 10 in kicks longer than 50 yards. The Jacksonville Jaguars let McManus go at the end of the season and went after Wil Lutz, but Lutz tore up the deal he signed during the tampering period and went to Denver. Slye had a subpar 2023, completing only 79.8% of his field goal attempts. In the draft, the team took Cam Little and then let Slye go, with the team on the hook for some guarantees.
Darious Williams was the top cornerback in the Jacksonville D last year and might have been their best secondary player. In 2022, the Jaguars had put him at the nickel back position, which didn’t suit his strengths, but moving to the sideline helped him significantly. He ended up defending 16 passes to lead the team. In 2023, he notched four interceptions, including a pick-six, and he also defended 19 passes. Even so, the team released him to open up $11 million under the salary cap. They signed Ronald Darby to replace Williams. Darby is less expensive, but his track record is also less impressive. The team also waited until the third round to take a cornerback in teh draft – Jarrian Jones. They did add Tre Flowers for depth, but all that means is that they just replaced starter-level quality with depth.
Bud Dupree would have contributed significantly to the Jacksonville pass rush, but he ended up signing with the L.A. Chargers. Josh Allen and Travon Walker combined for 27 ½ sacks, which led the league. They need a third option, though, because you can never have enough depth. Trevis Gipson had seven sacks in 2021 but only a total of four in 2022 and 2023. Dupree had a terrific season in 2023 with Atlanta, and Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen now has the same job in Jacksonville. It’s worth asking why the team didn’t go after Dupree. Arik Armistead could be a promising rusher as well, but he doesn’t have quite the resume that Dupree has.
With this said, the signings of Darnell Savage and Armistead hould have the Jacksonville Jaguars defense improved from Week 1. In addition to Jones, the team added Maason Smith and Jordan Jefferson as depth pieces to the secondary.
One priority that coach Doug Pederson had coming into 2024 was finding ways to reduce the number of touches that tailback Travis Etienne had per game. Keilan Robinson came in the fifth round but will likely play more snaps with the special teams than with the offense. They re-signed D’Ernest Johnson to back up Etienne, and they still have Tank Bigsby, who was a rookie last year. He didn’t get a lot of touches in 2023 but looks like he will hear his number called more often in 2024.
What happens if Lawrence goes down? Last year, that meant turning the offense over to C.J. Beathard. While the Iowa alum played gamely, the offense was just about as stagnant with him running things as the Hawkeyes’ run-first, grinding offense was when Beathard played there. The team added Mac Jones on a one-year deal to back up Lawrence, which likely leaves Beathard looking for a new backup gig.
The Jaguars have two other problems that have nothing to do with their roster – the return of Anthony Richardson at quarterback for the Colts and the rise of C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Richardson wowed scouts with his cannon of an arm at the combine ahead of the 2023 draft, and he looked like the real deal before having a season-ending injury. He’s back, and the Colts should be ready to push the Jaguars and the Texans in the division. The Texans have surrounded C.J. Stroud with a veteran tailback (Joe Mixon) and three elite wide receivers (Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and STefon Diggs, not to mention standout tight end Dalton Schultz). With a tougher fight for the division, the Jaguars will have a harder time finding enough wins to get to the postseason.
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No place like home 🏠@Dream_Finders | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/ZEoSISzZV1
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) May 21, 2024
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