NFL Jaguars vs Colts Odds, Analysis and Prediction for Week 1

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The Indianapolis Colts enter 2023 with a number of questions to answer. The defense remains solid, but the offense is a bigger enigma than ever. Tailback Jonathan Taylor has been elite since the Colts drafted him out of the University of Wisconsin, but a dispute with owner Jim Irsay has Taylor out for an indefinite period of time, as the team has put him on the Physically Unable to Perform list and claimed that he suffered a non-football injury, which means they may try not to pay him while he is out. Taylor has requested a trade, but the team has refused to try and ship him to another team. The starting quarterback is rookie Anthony Richardson, who excelled at the University of Florida last year, but without a strong running game, Richardson will have a tough time finding his way in his first pro season. The Colts open with a visit from last year’s AFC South champions, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Can the Colts keep up? Don’t miss our NFL betting preview.

Week 1: NFL Jaguars vs Colts Betting Odds | Bet NFL Football Lines by Xbet Sportsbook

When: Sunday, September 10, 2023, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV: FOX
Radio: WJXL 1010 AM Jacksonville / WFNI 107.5 FM Indianapolis
Live Stream: FuboTV
NFL Odds: Jacksonville -2.5 / O/U 43.5

Why should you bet on the Jaguars?

Interesting fact – in 10 straight Jacksonville-Indianapolis games at Lucas Oil Stadium, the favorite has also won straight up. The Jaguars have not done well with prosperity, failing to cover in eight of their last nine games as the favorites. They have also tended to start seasons slowly, losing the first half in four straight Week 1 games. In their last five September contests against AFC foes, they have lost the first quarter four times.

This line started at Jacksonville -4 and has shrunk since it opened. They did go 3-0 in the offseason, putting up 84 combined points and gaining 408.7 yards per contest. Trevor Lawrence didn’t see much time, but if this offense can run this smoothly with C.J. Beathard leading things, Lawrence should be able to put up solid numbers. The Jaguars should benefit from the absence of Jonathan Taylor and the accuracy problems that Anthony Richardson showed during the preseason.

Bet on the Jaguars to Win Today

Why should you put your money on the Colts?

The home team has an 11-game winning streak in this AFC South rivalry, and if we look at special teams, the Colts have another advantage. The team led the league in average kickoff return in 2022 (27.8 yards per return). Ball security has to get better for the Colts, though – their -13 turnover differential last season was dead last in a league that also includes the Houston Texans. That differential played a significant role in the team’s 4-12-1 record a year ago.

So what about Anthony Richardson? We know he has a cannon of an arm; we saw this again during the NFL scouting combine. At Florida, accuracy was an issue, and it also was an issue during the preseason. However, the team saw enough after just his first quarter of preseason play to name him the starting quarterback, and the sooner he can get that accuracy under control, the sooner he can start guiding this offense on long scoring drives.

Bet on the Colts to Win Today

Final Score and Prediction

Given the absence of Jonathan Taylor, I’m surprised that this point spread is not a few points higher at this point. This looks like an example of the imbalances that can appear in early point spreads. It’s possible that the Jaguars will come out sloppy, but Doug Pederson has typically prepared his teams well for openers, and the Jaguars also had a strong finish to 2022. I predict a final score of Jacksonville 24, Indianapolis 13.

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