If you follow this online betting blog, you have seen all sorts of conference championship coverage from us. Now, as we approach the end of the working week, it is time to take one more look at the NFC and AFC Championship games to see if we want to change our minds. The lines and point totals have not changed much since they opened; the only real movement has come in the point total for the AFC Championship, which opened at 51 and has shifted to 54.5.
Let’s take one more look at the two games and decide if we want to change our NFL picks.
NFL News: Last-Second Conference Championship Picks
AFC Championship
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs (54.5)
Our Pick: Cincinnati to cover ATS / Kansas City to win SU / Over 54.5 points
Did you see the Kansas City defense disappear in the fourth quarter against Cincinnati in Week 17? Did you see it disappear again in the divisional round against Buffalo? We can’t lay that blame just on the Chiefs’ defense, though. This is what happens when you play in a league that has faster, bigger wide receivers than ever, equipped with gloves that are more adhesive than that “stick’um” that was outlawed in the 1970s. It is also what happens when league rules favor the offense, and the rules on pass coverage, contact with the quarterback, tackling methods and the like all make it harder for defenses to stop offenses.
We know that Joe Burrow is “just” a second-year quarterback. However, this is a quarterback who made it through the gauntlet known as the SEC West, beat Alabama in divisional play, won the SEC Championship and won two rounds of the College Football Playoff. There are many NFL players who have not had that level of pressure yet, and Burrow simply excelled. His rookie campaign was cut short with a knee injury, but he has come back and delivered – and the second half of this season has shown how much growth he has made. He got sacked nine times last week by the Titans – and he delivered the win with a confident closing drive, even after the Titans swiftly eliminated a ten-point lead in the fourth. He can go toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes, and while I think Mahomes escapes again, this will be another duel akin to the one we saw last week.
NFC Championship
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams (45.5)
Our Pick: San Francisco to Win (ATS & SU) / Under 45.5 points
In Week 10, San Francisco won an emphatic 31-10 meeting with the Rams. Their running game simply embarrassed the Ram defense, and their pass rush flustered Matthew Stafford, who made mistake after mistake. In Week 18, the Rams looked like they had gotten their revenge when they opened up that 17-0 lead on the 49ers, but then San Francisco simply started coming back, tying the game at 24 and winning in overtime. At the time, the 49ers were the more desperate team, needing to win to make the postseason, while the Rams had already salted away the division title.
Now, though, the 49ers have shut down two prolific offenses in the playoffs already, beating Dallas and Green Bay on the road, and they look ready to shut down a third. I see this turning into another grinder of a game – and I see the 49ers showing the advantage in mental toughness once again.
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