NFL Miami Dolphins Odds: Defense In-Depth Betting Analysis

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The Miami Dolphins’ defense let them down in the second half of the 2022 season, as a 7-3 start turned into a 9-8 finish – and a wild-card round loss in Buffalo. After the bye week, the Dolphins went 2-5 in the regular season; their wins came over a terrible Houston team and a demoralized N.Y. Jets team; in those six losses after the bye (including the playoff loss), they permitted at least 23 points per game. The playoff loss was particularly frustrating from the defensive side, as the Dolphins managed 31 points on offense – but gave up 34. This off-season saw the Dolphins bring in a new defensive coordinator (the elite Vic Fangio) and trade for Jalen Ramsey to upgrade the secondary.

Will the defense respond? Read our thoughts as you consider your NFL sports betting for this fall.

NFL News: An In-depth Analysis of the Miami Dolphins Defense

At the start of 2022, there was a lot of optimism about the Miami defense. Josh Boyer stuck around at defensive coordinator from the prior coaching staff, and then the team traded for edge rusher Bradley Chubb at the deadline to add pressure. Instead, the Dolphins sank to 24th in expected points allowed per play and were dreadful against opposing passing games. In 2021, the team had finished 16th in points permitted, 15th in yards permitted and eighth in turnovers generated. In 2022, those numbers fell to 24th, 18th and 30th, respectively. Even though the pass rush had talent, and even though the secondary had some solid players, the unit did not produce.

One problem was Boyer’s reliance on the blitz. The Dolphins came in 15th in defensive DVOA, but the fact that they were fourth against the run and 25th against the pass shows where the problems occurred. Even though his defense kept getting burned on blitzes, Boyer’s plan was to keep the pressure up to try and force turnovers. This led to a defensive ranking of third-down conversion rate permitted of 26th. Their statistical peers included Arizona, Chicago, Atlanta, Detroit and Seattle. The run defense was much better, but much of this resulted from the fact that opponents would just throw the ball at will.

If you look at the roster the Dolphins rolled out there, this shouldn’t have been the case. Xavien Howard has a reputation as a shutdown corner. Jaelan Phillips, Melvin Ingram, and Christian Wilkins were already solid pass rushers before the team added Chubb. This suggests that the problem was the scheme, or perhaps the coordinator. This is where adding Fangio comes in. His defensive philosophy forces teams to bring the ball slowly down the field and then gets even more tenacious in the red zone. When he was the head coach in Denver from 2019-2021, his defenses were some of the best in the league. He went to Philadelphia to help as a consultant last season, and the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. Adding more sophisticated pre-snap looks and more safety help in coverage should make life easier for the cornerbacks.

Bringing in Ramsey to join Howard and Kader Kohou, entering his second year as a cornerback, creates a cornerback group that will take risks and should get rewards. Safeties DeShon Elliott, Brandon Jones and Jevon Holland will have to provide help over the top, but that’s the sort of scheme that Fangio has used with great results with other teams. Up front, the Dolphins extended Chubb and brought in David Long and Malik Reed, and Emmanuel Ogbah is back from a tricep tear that kept him on the shelf for eight weeks. With these talents on the roster, and with Fangio running the scheme, the Dolphins’ defense should be considerably better this season.

2023 Miami Defense Positions